Quest Club of Arizona

How many times have teams said they are one player away from contending? Far too many times, that’s for sure. Yet, in two recent losses for the Phoenix Suns versus San Antonio and Utah, it is clear that the Suns truly are “one player” away from being contenders.

Of course contending in the West means fighting for second place behind the Los Angeles Lakers. Nevertheless, it is not a bad position to be in.

In the salad days from 2004 to 2008 when the Suns averaged 58 wins per season, the team had a secondary ball handling option which represented a distributing and scoring threat that opposing defenses were forced to deal with. In the 2004-05, that player was Joe Johnson. From 2005 through 2008 that player was Boris Diaw.

Although these two players’ games differ dramatically, both share the ability to score 1-on-1 or set up scoring opportunities for teammates. Mixed in with Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire, the Suns were formidable during crunch time as revealed by their winning percentage during this time period.

Following the mid-season trade in 2008 that sent Diaw and Raja Bell to Charlotte for Jason Richardson and Jared Dudley, the Suns all but lost their reliable secondary primetime ball handler to supplement Nash. In their failed playoff run last year as well as recent losses this season, opposing teams were able to shut down the Suns offense in close games by crowding and trapping Nash.

This season the Suns have evolved into a better fundamental team by defending, rebounding, and running their half court offense rather than taking boatload of perimeter shots in early offense. Yet, the biggest vulnerability remains the rest of the team’s ability to get good shots when Nash is neutralized by defenses.

We have seen on occasion Grant Hill step up and dominate in the final minutes, and there have been games where the defense comes up with key stops or turnovers. However, against the more disciplined teams, such as the Spurs or Jazz, the Suns were clearly fighting uphill in the crucial stages.

The impending return of Leandro Barbosa to the lineup could fill the need for a 1-on-1 scoring threat but his abilities as a floor leader have always been questionable. Goran Dragic has had a great season but he has yet to become a consistent threat anywhere approaching the level that Johnson and Diaw had provided in past seasons. Earl Clark has shown the instincts to fill this multi-faceted role, but he is still very raw and is at least a season away from even earning consistent minutes, let alone crucial time during close games.

Hopefully, the Suns will bounce back from another disappointing loss to the Jazz after giving up a double-digit lead and continue to be one of the hottest teams in the league. A playoff spot appears pretty secure at this point and the final 19 games will determine their seeding. However, the thought of another tumultuous offseason full of trade rumors and rebuilding theories is still a reality.

If the management staff instead views this team as a reformulated unit on the rise, then they are one free agent signing or rapid player development away from making a huge impact in the Western Conference. Let’s hope Robert Sarver and Steve Kerr see it this way.

Robin Lopez = Impact Player?

The presence of Robin Lopez in the Phoenix Suns starting lineup has coincided with a complete turnaround in the team’s fortunes. Initially seen as a 1st round draft mistake, in just one month Lopez has emerged as a legitimate NBA starting center.

In the 18 games with “Rockin’ Robin” in the lineup, the Suns are 12-6 despite the fact that Lopez became a starter in the midst of the team’s low point of the season. During an 11-game stretch, the Suns went 3-8 which included 2-4 in Lopez’s first 6 starts. They have gone 10-2 since.

Sure, there was the Amare Stoudemire fourth-quarter benching during the Suns January 28 win over Dallas. And there was Alvin Gentry’s recent pep talk to Jason Richardson. These factors have lit a fire under these two players. But no change for the Suns has been as drastic as moving Lopez from part-time benchwarmer to full-time starter.

Looking at Lopez’s stats, the change has been dramatic:

Points per game:
Starter, 12.2
Bench, 4.0

Field goal percentage:
Starter, 61.9%
Bench, 55.2%

Free throw percentage:
Starter,77.1%
Bench, 57.1%

Rebounds per game
Starter, 6.2
Bench, 2.8

After the Suns flew out of the gate 21 games into the season, I was still bearish on the Suns overall prospects. Simple statistics suggested that they would decline to the point that their playoff possibilities would be in jeopardy. In contrast, the most recent 18 games tell an entirely different story. Here is a quick look comparison of the early 2009-10 Suns stats with the Robin Lopez version:

Points per game
Starting Lopez, 108.0
First 21 games, 109.3

Points allowed per game
Starting Lopez, 103.7
First 21 games, 106.0

Rebounds per game
Starting Lopez, 44.6
First 21 games, 41.9

Rebounds allowed per game
Starting Lopez, 41.0
First 21 games, 43.3

Field goal percentage
Starting Lopez, 48.1%
First 21 games, 49.3%

Field goal percentage allowed
Starting Lopez, 45.5%
First 21 games, 46.2%

While the early ’09-’10 Suns relied on sharpshooting to outscore their opponents, the new Suns have been succeeding with better defense and rebounding. Furthermore, the early Suns lost 5 games by 15 points or more in 21 games while the new Suns have not suffered any such blowout losses. Their worst defeat was an 11 point loss to Chicago.

With 23 games left in the season, the signs point to a strong finish for the Suns. The presence of Lopez has brought a toughness to the lineup that was sorely lacking. With the ability to play better defense and rebound, the team’s confidence in close games has increased dramatically. While this year’s Suns certainly won’t challenge the Los Angeles Lakers, I do believe they are now a very solid playoff team with a realistic chance of advancing to the second round.

As we are less than 24 hours away from the NBA trade deadline, of course, rumors are flying about the impending trade involving future former Phoenix Sun, Amare Stoudemire. Suns fans may have trouble understanding the mindset of Suns GM Steve Kerr and majority owner Robert Sarver.

Exclusive to this blog, we have uncovered exactly how the Suns have come to their current situation. It is detailed below. Prepare to be amazed.

Title:
Robert Sarver’s and Steve Kerr’s blueprint to win an NBA Championship

Current Team Situation:
Phoenix Suns are in 6th place playoff position in the Western Conference.

Evaluation and Goal:
Unsatisfactory—Suns should be in 1st place on the way to winning a Championship!

Current Player Situation:
Amare Stoudemire, leading scorer, rebounder, and shot blocker at 21.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.0 blk.

Evaluation and Goal:
Unsatisfactory—Stoudemire should be averaging 30.0 ppg, 14.0 rpg, 3.0 blk!

Current Player Salary Situation:
Amare Stoudemire has asked for an extension less than the max.

Evaluation and Goal:
Still too much—Stoudemire should only be paid as much as Boris Diaw!

Action Items:
Trade Amare asap!

Best 8 Players to Target and Their Statuses:

1. Lebron James, free agent player option but not interested in Suns
2. Dwayne Wade, free agent player option but not interested in Suns
3. Chris Bosh, free agent player option but not interested in Suns
4. Joe Johnson, free agent but not interested in Suns (been-there-done-that)
5. Carlos Boozer, free agent but not interested in Suns
6. Shaquille O’Neal, free agent but Suns not interested (been-there-done-that)
7. J.J. Hickson, AVAILABLE!
8. Mario Chalmers, Quentin Richardson, Daequan Cook, Dorell Wright and draft picks (TREAT THIS COMBO AS ONE PLAYER), AVAILABLE!

There you have it. When you read that the Suns are considering their best possbile options in trading Amare, you know that they are speaking from the heart.

We all know about the rumors concerning the Phoenix Suns trading Amare Stoudemire. Parallel to these discussions is the recent statement made by Stoudemire about possibly actually opting in for next season. It’s been everywhere on NBA news sites but in case you haven’t had the chance yet, here is the link.

Let’s look at this from the Suns management perspective. When it all boils down, it doesn’t make their job any easier or more difficult.

The overriding impetus behind the Amare rumors has to do with value, as in a max contract does not reflect the value Amare brings to the Suns but if he opts out and leaves after this season, the Suns don’t receive any value in return.

In reality, there is no separating these two value concepts. There is little chance that the Suns will land a lottery draft pick in a Stoudemire trade. Either Stoudemire will indicate he won’t re-sign (example: Golden State) or teams will simply not be willing to part with a sure bet lottery pick (example: Philadelphia). This means that in any proposed trade, the Suns will receive existing NBA players, either young or old, for a total combined salary closely approximate to Stoudemire’s.

Let’s remember that above all else, the Suns are looking after their budget. Ideally, they want to get under the NBA luxury tax threshold.

Consider the hottest rumor of the day: Amare to Philadelphia for Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert (remember, no draft picks since the 76ers don’t want to trade a guaranteed lottery pick). The reason why many fans and commentators like this trade is because at least the Suns would receive the “best plausible deal for STAT” that they could get. This popular notion is explained in this blog post.

For now, forget the notion that this trade makes little sense basketball-wise (see my previous post) and focus on the financial ramifications. If Amare opts-in for next year, he will make $17.7 million and then become a free agent in 2011. If the Suns trade for Iguodala and Dalembert, their combined salary for next season is $25.5 million. Since this is a 2-for-1 trade, the Suns would be spared the need to sign a minimum free agent to remain at the NBA minimum 13-player roster size. If you add the $1.2 million veteran minimum to Stoudemire’s salary for next season, it comes out to $18.9 million or $6.6 million less than the combined salaries of Iguodala and Dalembert.

Why would the budget-conscious Suns make a trade that would increase their payroll by $6.6 million for next year? Also consider that Iguodala is locked in to his current contract until 2013 at an average of $13.5 million for three years. Factor in the threat that player salaries might see a dramatic reduction with the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) after next season  and Iguodala’s contract has the potential to be quite an albatross for cost-cutting franchises like the Suns.

There is another blog post that opines “Why Amare Stoudemire HAS To Opt Out.” Interestingly, the author contradicts his own reasoning by stating that the new CBA could dramatically cut salaries but then suggests the Suns could trade Stoudemire for “one nice player who’s got a long term deal.” This is another way of showing the Suns financially what a noose is and then how to hang themselves with it.

Forget young superstars on the cheap, like Kevin Durant. They are not for sale. Today’s upper-mid or mid-level “nice player” locked in long term is tomorrow’s Wally Szczerbiak or Brian Cardinal. Trading for a long term contract is very risky, especially when average salaries will be decreasing.

If the Suns seek to not increase payroll and not lock themselves into a large, long-term contract, then their other option is to seek the proverbial “expiring contract” of a player whose contract ends at the conclusion of this season. By its nature an expiring contract implies that the Suns would have no interest in retaining the player. For example, the Suns swapped Shaquille O’Neal for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic. Although these two players didn’t have expiring contracts, they were bought out, which has the same effect. Neither player ever donned a Suns uniform.

If the Suns simply let Stoudemire’s contract end and then see him off to pursue other opportunities, the effect on the franchise would be the same as if they traded for an expiring contract. Whether this happens in 2010 or 2011 is all up to Amare. In 2010, either the Suns pay Stoudemire or they pay comparable money to a top free agent. In 2011, salaries may see a dramatic decrease, but the free agent pool will not likely be stellar either.

The only salient point in all this discussion is that the Suns management needs to decide if they want to build a winning team or a budgeted team. If they decide on the latter, then a salary dump trade involving Stoudemire will always be available or they can just let him walk.

If they decide on the former, they will need to pay Stoudemire or some other player who offers at least as much productivity as Amare. Certainly, the Suns have every right to stay within the salary cap, but there is room for one max or near-max contract on such a team. Personally, I don’t see Stoudemire as a max player, but he is near-max. Short of acquiring LeBron, Kobe, Wade, or even Bosh, I don’t think the Suns can do any better than to try their best to retain Amare. Offer him fair money at near-max and let him be the one to choose.

Of the various missteps and bad decisions that characterize the Robert Sarver era of Phoenix Suns ownership, the one that fans believe started it all was the Joe Johnson sign-and-trade with the Atlanta Hawks. Essentially, the Suns (Sarver) refused to meet Johnson’s salary demands, negotiations got personal, and the Suns managed to salvage value for getting rid of Johnson by acquiring Boris Diaw and the first round pick that eventually became Robin Lopez.

In his final season with the Suns, Johnson was a key player for the youngest and most promising team in the NBA. How events unraveled over the past five seasons suggest that it was the Suns who cared more about money and less about winning. All the selling of player contracts, buyouts, and salary dumps have put the Suns on the verge of collapse.

The Hawks are currently second in the East and fourth overall in the NBA, based on won-loss records. Johnson has been a major contributor to the success of a team that was among the worst in the league at the time Johnson joined the franchise. The Hawks won 26 games in his first season with the team and now are on pace to win 55. In their most recent game, Johnson’s Hawks completed their first season sweep of the Boston Celtics in 11 years.

But the epilogue of the Suns/Johnson saga may see the Suns exonerated in this particular case. And it all comes down to how much Johnson cares about winning.

Bear in mind that the recession-era NBA economy is much different from the booming days of when Johnson was last a free agent. Last offseason, Carlos Boozer opted-in to the final year of his contract at $12.6 million with the Utah Jazz despite rumors suggesting he was seeking a long-term deal in the range of $15 million per year. True, Boozer is an injury-risk player, but he also recently  averaged over 20 points and 10 rebounds for two seasons and was the biggest name free agent last offseason. His decision to opt-in speaks volumes about the state of the NBA economy.

With Johnson’s current contract nearing its end, he was offered a four-year, $60 million extension by the Hawks. This season, Johnson will make a tick under $15 million. So the proposed extension provides a small increase. Johnson flatly refused the offer. And unlike the Suns’ Amare Stoudemire, he has not unequivocally stated that his priority is to stay with his current team. The prevailing thought is that Johnson will leave the Hawks in the offseason. Yahoo Sports goes as far to suggest that Johnson will sign with the Chicago Bulls.

The NBA salary cap is expected to be reduced as league revenues continue to decline. Many franchises are expected to cut payroll as a result. Yet, with the Hawks gaining stature as a true contender in the East, it is Johnson who is looking for a big payday as opposed to a championship ring.

When Johnson was with the Suns, they were the rising young team on the verge of joining the NBA elite. The Hawks are now in a similar situation. And like five years ago, Johnson is apparently unhappy and seeking a big pay raise. I wonder who the Hawks fans see as the “bad guy” in this player drama?

As if on queue, with the All-Star break approaching the Suns are once again near the top of the rumor mill looking to trade away a valuable asset for questionable return. Two years ago it was Shawn Marion for Shaq. Last year, Raja Bell and Boris Diaw for Jason Richardson and Jared Dudley. This year Amare Stoudemire for … well, if it happens it will certainly be for something less valuable than Amare.

The Shaq trade resulted in a year-and-a-half of controversy, disappointment, and finally a fire sale. At least the Cleveland Cavaliers seem to be benefitting from Shaq’s presence. The Richardson and Dudley trade resulted in a few clutch games but mostly missed shots followed by turnovers in crunch time. Add in the fire sale expulsion of Kurt Thomas three years ago, and the trend suggests that there is little hope that an actual Amare trade will do anything to help the Suns. The best result would be merely minimizing losses in the form of how many players could be bought out and/or how many “expiring contracts” can be assumed.

The irony is that in the Suns most recent game, a victory against Golden State, the five players who made a difference were Goran Dragic, Robin Lopez, Earl Clark, Channing Frye, and Louis Amundson. Three were players drafted by the Suns (Dragic, Lopez, Clark) and the other two were free agent signees (Frye, Amundson). Players who the Suns recently traded for were either on the bench or long since departed to other franchises. What does that say about Suns GM Steve Kerr’s and Suns majority owner Robert Sarver’s collective ability to negotiate trades? Not a whole lot.

The ghost of 2008-09 is still chasing this 2009-10 team. Forty-five games into this season and the Suns are only one game ahead of last year’s pace (26-19 versus 25-10). If the Suns trade away Stoudemire, it’s possible the team may win only 8 to 10 more games the rest of the way and finish well below .500. Fans may not be happy with the current Suns, but an Amare-less lineup would turn the Suns into a team barely better than the New Jersey Nets.

Like any blogger, I do my share of armchair coaching. But this time. I’ll be more direct. Instead of trading Amare, the Suns should focus on what they intended to do in the offseason: play better defense, get younger, and compete with more energy. Stick with the core three veterans: Stoudemire, Steve Nash, and Grant Hill, and add players who fit the mold, i.e., some of the ones mentioned above.

Dragic is clearly the best defensive guard on the roster and he is a high-energy, sticky defense, never-give-up type of player who should be paired with Nash in the backcourt. Jason Richardson can continue starting. He does best when it doesn’t matter: at the beginning of games and the end of blowouts. However, the majority of minutes should go to Dragic, who can either relieve Nash at point guard or pair up with him at shooting guard.

The Robin Lopez Experiment as a starter has worked out better than expected and could very well be a long-term solution to pairing a legitimate big-man center with Stoudemire at power forward. Lopez surprisingly has great hands, which serves him well in a pick-and-roll offense. He also has a soft shooting touch as evidenced by his improving short-range shot and free-throw shooting (8-8 against Golden State).

Clark is a fumbling, bumbling rookie, but he’s still the best defensive wing player on the bench and he has length, something the Suns have been lacking all season. He has a nice shooting stroke that will become more accurate with more playing time.

In order for the Suns to break out, it requires a major change. And this change needs to start with the front office realizing that a trade will not help the team in the short or long term. The roster can be reworked with players already under contract. Expensive contracts, like Jason Richardson, and likable intelligent players, like Jared Dudley, may suffer in the makeover. However, the season is at a very critical juncture. For the team to turnaround their fortunes, it’s time to rely on players that were hand-picked by coaches and management: Dragic, Lopez and Clark. After all, it was Kerr, Sarver and Gentry who selected these players in the draft for a reason. It is now time for them to trust their judgment and try to wins games with their draft picks making major contributions.

Here’s a depressing fact. After 39 games, this year’s Phoenix Suns are only one game better than last year’s team: 24-15 versus 23-16. Those 2008-09 Suns were roundly criticized and their failure to meet expectations cost Terry Porter his job as head coach.

With a much different team from last year, the Suns began this season with lowered expectations. Yet, a 14-3 start captured the imagination of the fans and the attention around the NBA. What has followed is a classic meltdown, the type of which we have not seen in a decade.

After last night’s loss against the Indiana Pacers, it appears that things won’t improve any time soon. In typical fashion, another big Suns lead evaporated quickly in the 3rd quarter. It is clear that teams know that no Suns lead is safe. Even the worst teams in the league are emboldened by the fact that if they keep playing hard, they are likely to prevail against the Suns.

I am usually an optimist. Even going into this season, I believed that if the players performed up to their potential, this year’s team had a chance to do better than last year. However, now that the Suns have gone through a 10-12 stretch and their playoff position looks to be in serious jeopardy, there is no doubt that something needs to change.

The Suns have only two big, physical players on their bench: Robin Lopez and Jarron Collins. Yet, it is common that neither ever sees any playing time. Lopez has only appeared in two of the last five games, including a DNP last night. The last time Collins played was in 2009, and it makes one wonder if Alando Tucker was somehow secretly placed back on the Suns bench.

The Suns continue to show a complete lack of interior defense (to go along with their time-proven lack of perimeter defense) as well as an inability to keep opposing teams from getting offensive rebounds. It is very difficult to understand why they have not turned to one or both of these players for stretches of time during games to knock some heads around and create havoc.

By the way, interior defense is what fans and commentators completely took for granted last year with Shaquille O’Neal.

It’s one thing to lose after blowing a big lead. It’s quite another to lose this way while playing as soft as a wet pancake. The current 9-man (or 9 1/2-man) rotation is seriously lacking in toughness. And when the offense sputters, the Suns lack of size and physical play means that they simply can’t compete going down the stretch in close games. True, neither Lopez or Collins is an offensive threat. Neither is going to chuck up three-pointers and other long outside shots that the Suns have come to depend on. However, their physical play and size can more than compensate when defense and rebounding determines which team wins.

No doubt about it, no one would have guessed that after 21 games in the 2009-10 season, the Phoenix Suns would be 15-6. Expectations have been raised for a team that most predicted would win fewer than 40 games. Now it’s looking like the playoffs are a real possibility with an outside chance of home court advantage for the first round. Yet, despite the optimism, it’s still not clear whether or not this Suns team is for real.

The losses have been ugly. Their 27-point loss to the New York Knicks was an embarrassment. There have been blowout losses to championship-caliber teams. Then there was a bad loss to the up-and-down New Orleans Hornets. But the Hornets are always hard to beat when they shoot over 50 percent for threes, and at least the Suns had a glimmer of hope to win late in the game. For all the other losses, the Suns were no-hopers.

There have also been quality wins. Perhaps the best was the Suns’ upset on the road over the Boston Celtics. Overall, the Suns are playing well and doing an excellent job of sticking to their game plan. They have won games in the fourth quarter by executing in the half court, playing good defense, and denying opponents second-chance opportunities. Appearances suggest that this year’s team may go far. But statistics tell a different story. This team may be shooting better, but all other statistics are below previous seasons.

Here is a quick look comparison of this year’s Suns (so far) against the historic 2004-05 team that won 62 games and the last of the great Seven Seconds Or Less (SSOL) teams of 2006-07 that recorded 61 wins:

Points per game
2004-05 (82 games), 110.4
2006-07 (82 games), 110.2
2009-10 (21 games), 109.3

Points allowed per game
2004-05, 103.3
2006-07, 102.9
2009-10, 106.0

Rebounds per game
2004-05, 44.1
2006-07, 40.5
2009-10, 41.9

Rebounds allowed per game
2004-05, 46.1
2006-07, 42.8
2009-10, 43.3

Field goal percentage
2004-05, 47.7%
2006-07, 49.4%
2009-10, 49.3%

Field goal percentage allowed
2004-05, 44.5%
2006-07, 45.7
2009-10, 46.2%

Record after 21 games:
2004-05, 18-3
2006-07, 15-6
2009-10, 15-6

Interestingly, the stats might have been nearly identical if it weren’t for the alarmingly large amount of blowout losses suffered by this year’s team. This season, the Suns have already lost 5 games by 15 points or more in just 21 games. In comparison, the 2004-05 team only had 4 such losses and the 2006-07 team only had 3 for their entire 82 games!

Even the great underdog Suns of 2005-06 that came within 2 games of moving to the NBA Finals lost only 6 games by 15 points or more during the regular season.

Perhaps the discrepancy this season is due to the bench playing more. In the past, the starters consistently played big minutes which probably meant the Suns would be able to stay closer in losing games. Perhaps it’s because this year’s star players are older than the past great teams which translates to more fatigue and less resiliency. Perhaps it’s the schedule, with 14 road games out of 21 this season compared to 10 out of the first 21 in 2004 and 11 out of 21 in 2006.

Favorably, this year’s team has already won 6 games by 15 points or more. In 2004, they had 7 such wins in the first 21 games but in 2006, they only had 3.

This year’s team is still young both in terms of age and in maturity. The 2004-05 team was the youngest in the league but had some amazingly mature young players. This year’s team has more players who are still emerging as regular contributors. For Frye, Dudley, Amundson, Dragic, Lopez and Clark, team success in the NBA is new to them. They will need to continue to improve, make the proper adjustments, and become more consistent and reliable as opponents familiarize themselves with the Suns attack.

The Suns are entering what might be the most important stretch of the season. Including Sunday’s game against the Lakers, during an 8-game stretch, the Suns will face 7 quality opponents: Lakers (already lost), Dallas, Orlando, Denver, San Antonio, Portland (minus Greg Oden), and Cleveland. The only respite is Washington on the December 19th. The Suns must win half of these games or better to continue building on their great season start. If they manage only 3 wins or fewer, there is the risk that this promising team may begin to struggle to hold on to a playoff position as the season wears on. This stretch will let everyone know what kind of team these Phoenix Suns really are.

With today’s announcement that small forward Grant Hill is returning to the Suns, 6-11 forward/center Channing Frye has agreed to join the Suns, and Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic will be bought out, it appears that the 2009/10 roster is set.

I cannot imagine the Suns paying any more than necessary in order to fill the roster to the NBA minimum 13 players. So 2nd round pick Taylor Griffin is all but assured a spot on the team unless he completely tanks it over the summer. The rookie minimum is $457,588 and it’s unlikely the Suns could find another player they like and with potential for the same amount.

Here are your 2009/10 Suns:

Amare Stoudemire, PF-C
Jason Richardson, SG-SF
Steve Nash, PG
Leandrinho Barbosa, PG-SG
Grant Hill, SF
Channing Frye, PF-C
Goran Dragic, PG
Robin Lopez, C
Earl Clark, SG-SF
Jared Dudley, SF-PF
Alando Tucker, SG-SF
Louis Amundson, SF-PF
Taylor Griffin, SF

Joining his fourth team in less than two seasons, ESPN reports that former Suns player Shawn Marion has been dealt to the Dallas Mavericks in a four-team trade. Marion’s carousel of team changes went as follows:

- In 2007, the Suns refuse demands for a max contract extension at around $20M per season.

- Suns trade Marion in mid season 2008 to Miami for Shaq.

- Marion opts in for the final year of his contract at $17.8M.

- Miami offers a three-year extension at $10M per season. Marion refuses.

- Miami trades Marion in mid season 2009 to Toronto.

- Toronto reportedly offers a four-year extension at over $8M per season. Marion refuses.

- Toronto trades Marion in off season 2009 to Dallas.

- Marion reportedly agrees to a five-year contract at slightly less than $8M per season.

Other than getting less than half of what he made last season, this move should be positive for Marion. He returns to a winning team with a chance to go deep in the playoffs. However, just how the Mavericks will integrate Marion and the somewhat similar player in Josh Howard remains to be seen.

But the storyline that has been dismissed by many pundits is the go-for-broke moves that former Suns GM Bryan Colangelo has made to turn around his team’s fortunes immediately. If you recall, the Toronto Raptors were supposed to progress into one of the elite teams in the East. Needless to say, 2008-09 was a disaster with the team registering only 33 wins.

Like he did with the Suns in 2004, Colangelo has responded by taking an aggressive approach to changing the Raptors, not willing to wait around for a multi-year rebuilding project. He has shed salaries and made key acquisitions. His highest profile signing is Hedo Turkoglu, a player with great all-around skills who had a monster 2009 NBA playoff run. Although most pundits claim that at age 30, Turkoglu is somehow on the verge of decline, I believe his game is more like Jason Kidd’s, where his passing ability and basketball IQ will allow him to still be effective into his late 30s.

Significantly, by structuring the Turkoglu acquisition as a sign-and-trade for Marion and other players, Toronto has preserved its two salary cap exceptions: the $5.9M mid-level and $1.99M biennial. This means that the Raptors can still be active in the free agent market.

Two other important moves are the re-signing former No. 1 pick Andrea Bargnani and the drafting of athletic swingman DeMar DeRozan. Along with superstar forward Chris Bosh, point guard Jose Calderon, and European-style head coach Jay Triano, the Raptors appear to be ready to put on a run-and-gun style attack that is reminiscent of the Suns when they had Mike D’Antoni at the helm.

Of course the Raptors will not put any fear into opponents defensively. But that is not what run-and-gun is all about. Suns fans enjoyed four great seasons of this type of attack, and are hoping for more with the Suns retaining head coach Alvin Gentry. If the Raptors can make the playoffs and push a 50-win season in 2009-10, it will be a huge coup for Colangelo and cement his place as one of the best GMs of his time. However, if the Raptors continue their losing ways, it will bring back memories of some of Colangelo’s worst deals such as the trades to get rid of  Dan Majerle, Charles Barkley and Jason Kidd. Time will tell.

The bottom line is Colangelo has committed to his superstar (Bosh) and has made bold moves to build the team around the star. Perhaps the Suns would do well to follow the same strategy.