Quest Club of Arizona

Robin Lopez = Impact Player?

The presence of Robin Lopez in the Phoenix Suns starting lineup has coincided with a complete turnaround in the team’s fortunes. Initially seen as a 1st round draft mistake, in just one month Lopez has emerged as a legitimate NBA starting center.

In the 18 games with “Rockin’ Robin” in the lineup, the Suns are 12-6 despite the fact that Lopez became a starter in the midst of the team’s low point of the season. During an 11-game stretch, the Suns went 3-8 which included 2-4 in Lopez’s first 6 starts. They have gone 10-2 since.

Sure, there was the Amare Stoudemire fourth-quarter benching during the Suns January 28 win over Dallas. And there was Alvin Gentry’s recent pep talk to Jason Richardson. These factors have lit a fire under these two players. But no change for the Suns has been as drastic as moving Lopez from part-time benchwarmer to full-time starter.

Looking at Lopez’s stats, the change has been dramatic:

Points per game:
Starter, 12.2
Bench, 4.0

Field goal percentage:
Starter, 61.9%
Bench, 55.2%

Free throw percentage:
Starter,77.1%
Bench, 57.1%

Rebounds per game
Starter, 6.2
Bench, 2.8

After the Suns flew out of the gate 21 games into the season, I was still bearish on the Suns overall prospects. Simple statistics suggested that they would decline to the point that their playoff possibilities would be in jeopardy. In contrast, the most recent 18 games tell an entirely different story. Here is a quick look comparison of the early 2009-10 Suns stats with the Robin Lopez version:

Points per game
Starting Lopez, 108.0
First 21 games, 109.3

Points allowed per game
Starting Lopez, 103.7
First 21 games, 106.0

Rebounds per game
Starting Lopez, 44.6
First 21 games, 41.9

Rebounds allowed per game
Starting Lopez, 41.0
First 21 games, 43.3

Field goal percentage
Starting Lopez, 48.1%
First 21 games, 49.3%

Field goal percentage allowed
Starting Lopez, 45.5%
First 21 games, 46.2%

While the early ’09-’10 Suns relied on sharpshooting to outscore their opponents, the new Suns have been succeeding with better defense and rebounding. Furthermore, the early Suns lost 5 games by 15 points or more in 21 games while the new Suns have not suffered any such blowout losses. Their worst defeat was an 11 point loss to Chicago.

With 23 games left in the season, the signs point to a strong finish for the Suns. The presence of Lopez has brought a toughness to the lineup that was sorely lacking. With the ability to play better defense and rebound, the team’s confidence in close games has increased dramatically. While this year’s Suns certainly won’t challenge the Los Angeles Lakers, I do believe they are now a very solid playoff team with a realistic chance of advancing to the second round.

As we are less than 24 hours away from the NBA trade deadline, of course, rumors are flying about the impending trade involving future former Phoenix Sun, Amare Stoudemire. Suns fans may have trouble understanding the mindset of Suns GM Steve Kerr and majority owner Robert Sarver.

Exclusive to this blog, we have uncovered exactly how the Suns have come to their current situation. It is detailed below. Prepare to be amazed.

Title:
Robert Sarver’s and Steve Kerr’s blueprint to win an NBA Championship

Current Team Situation:
Phoenix Suns are in 6th place playoff position in the Western Conference.

Evaluation and Goal:
Unsatisfactory—Suns should be in 1st place on the way to winning a Championship!

Current Player Situation:
Amare Stoudemire, leading scorer, rebounder, and shot blocker at 21.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.0 blk.

Evaluation and Goal:
Unsatisfactory—Stoudemire should be averaging 30.0 ppg, 14.0 rpg, 3.0 blk!

Current Player Salary Situation:
Amare Stoudemire has asked for an extension less than the max.

Evaluation and Goal:
Still too much—Stoudemire should only be paid as much as Boris Diaw!

Action Items:
Trade Amare asap!

Best 8 Players to Target and Their Statuses:

1. Lebron James, free agent player option but not interested in Suns
2. Dwayne Wade, free agent player option but not interested in Suns
3. Chris Bosh, free agent player option but not interested in Suns
4. Joe Johnson, free agent but not interested in Suns (been-there-done-that)
5. Carlos Boozer, free agent but not interested in Suns
6. Shaquille O’Neal, free agent but Suns not interested (been-there-done-that)
7. J.J. Hickson, AVAILABLE!
8. Mario Chalmers, Quentin Richardson, Daequan Cook, Dorell Wright and draft picks (TREAT THIS COMBO AS ONE PLAYER), AVAILABLE!

There you have it. When you read that the Suns are considering their best possbile options in trading Amare, you know that they are speaking from the heart.

We all know about the rumors concerning the Phoenix Suns trading Amare Stoudemire. Parallel to these discussions is the recent statement made by Stoudemire about possibly actually opting in for next season. It’s been everywhere on NBA news sites but in case you haven’t had the chance yet, here is the link.

Let’s look at this from the Suns management perspective. When it all boils down, it doesn’t make their job any easier or more difficult.

The overriding impetus behind the Amare rumors has to do with value, as in a max contract does not reflect the value Amare brings to the Suns but if he opts out and leaves after this season, the Suns don’t receive any value in return.

In reality, there is no separating these two value concepts. There is little chance that the Suns will land a lottery draft pick in a Stoudemire trade. Either Stoudemire will indicate he won’t re-sign (example: Golden State) or teams will simply not be willing to part with a sure bet lottery pick (example: Philadelphia). This means that in any proposed trade, the Suns will receive existing NBA players, either young or old, for a total combined salary closely approximate to Stoudemire’s.

Let’s remember that above all else, the Suns are looking after their budget. Ideally, they want to get under the NBA luxury tax threshold.

Consider the hottest rumor of the day: Amare to Philadelphia for Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert (remember, no draft picks since the 76ers don’t want to trade a guaranteed lottery pick). The reason why many fans and commentators like this trade is because at least the Suns would receive the “best plausible deal for STAT” that they could get. This popular notion is explained in this blog post.

For now, forget the notion that this trade makes little sense basketball-wise (see my previous post) and focus on the financial ramifications. If Amare opts-in for next year, he will make $17.7 million and then become a free agent in 2011. If the Suns trade for Iguodala and Dalembert, their combined salary for next season is $25.5 million. Since this is a 2-for-1 trade, the Suns would be spared the need to sign a minimum free agent to remain at the NBA minimum 13-player roster size. If you add the $1.2 million veteran minimum to Stoudemire’s salary for next season, it comes out to $18.9 million or $6.6 million less than the combined salaries of Iguodala and Dalembert.

Why would the budget-conscious Suns make a trade that would increase their payroll by $6.6 million for next year? Also consider that Iguodala is locked in to his current contract until 2013 at an average of $13.5 million for three years. Factor in the threat that player salaries might see a dramatic reduction with the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) after next season  and Iguodala’s contract has the potential to be quite an albatross for cost-cutting franchises like the Suns.

There is another blog post that opines “Why Amare Stoudemire HAS To Opt Out.” Interestingly, the author contradicts his own reasoning by stating that the new CBA could dramatically cut salaries but then suggests the Suns could trade Stoudemire for “one nice player who’s got a long term deal.” This is another way of showing the Suns financially what a noose is and then how to hang themselves with it.

Forget young superstars on the cheap, like Kevin Durant. They are not for sale. Today’s upper-mid or mid-level “nice player” locked in long term is tomorrow’s Wally Szczerbiak or Brian Cardinal. Trading for a long term contract is very risky, especially when average salaries will be decreasing.

If the Suns seek to not increase payroll and not lock themselves into a large, long-term contract, then their other option is to seek the proverbial “expiring contract” of a player whose contract ends at the conclusion of this season. By its nature an expiring contract implies that the Suns would have no interest in retaining the player. For example, the Suns swapped Shaquille O’Neal for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic. Although these two players didn’t have expiring contracts, they were bought out, which has the same effect. Neither player ever donned a Suns uniform.

If the Suns simply let Stoudemire’s contract end and then see him off to pursue other opportunities, the effect on the franchise would be the same as if they traded for an expiring contract. Whether this happens in 2010 or 2011 is all up to Amare. In 2010, either the Suns pay Stoudemire or they pay comparable money to a top free agent. In 2011, salaries may see a dramatic decrease, but the free agent pool will not likely be stellar either.

The only salient point in all this discussion is that the Suns management needs to decide if they want to build a winning team or a budgeted team. If they decide on the latter, then a salary dump trade involving Stoudemire will always be available or they can just let him walk.

If they decide on the former, they will need to pay Stoudemire or some other player who offers at least as much productivity as Amare. Certainly, the Suns have every right to stay within the salary cap, but there is room for one max or near-max contract on such a team. Personally, I don’t see Stoudemire as a max player, but he is near-max. Short of acquiring LeBron, Kobe, Wade, or even Bosh, I don’t think the Suns can do any better than to try their best to retain Amare. Offer him fair money at near-max and let him be the one to choose.

The latest hot rumor concerning the Suns never-ending search to unload Amare Stoudemire has them trading their power forward to the Philadelphia 76ers in exchange for Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert. Supposedly the Suns are initiating the conversation and the “Sixers are the side holding up the deal.” You can read the story here.

If there is any truth to the rumor, then Suns GM Steve Kerr and majority owner Robert Sarver truly are incapable of running a winning NBA franchise.

Here’s the 5-cent rundown on why this proposed trade is a loser.

Iguodala is either a small forward or shooting guard. With Amare gone, the Suns would have no replacement at power forward. Channing Frye is an even lesser rebounder and defender than Stoudemire and has a non-existent inside game. With his great perimeter shooting, Frye could serve as a “stretch 4″ but this would be useless without a power game.

Believe it or not, Robin Lopez would be thrust into the role as the Suns primary low post threat. There’s a lot to like about Lopez right now, but it would be premature and poor career management to make him “The Man” during the 2009-10 season.

Speaking of Lopez, his emergence would be put into limbo with the addition of Dalembert. As a true center, Dalembert is known mostly for his defense, shot blocking and rebounding. Sounds a lot like what the Suns want from Lopez, right? On top of that, Dalembert’s $12.3 million contract next season would make it difficult to justify bringing him off the bench. For this very reason, the 76ers are trying to trade Dalembert and are finding the market to be very limited.

Back to Iguodala, his place in the Suns starting lineup would come at the expense of either Jason Richardson or Grant Hill. Richardson is scheduled to make $14.4 million next season, so benching him would make as much sense as benching Dalembert.

Grant Hill is one of the classiest players in the NBA. He re-signed with the Suns only after they convinced him that their future plans actually pointed towards building a winning team (not “rebuilding”) and that Hill would play a major role in helping to bring along the younger players.

Trading for Iguodala and then immediately benching Hill would be a slap in the face for Hill, not because anyone is arguing that Hill is better than Iguodala right now, but because it would be symbolic of relegating Hill to a lesser role within the team.

In the end, the Suns would have a gaping hole in the low post. It would make the opponent’s job of shutting down the Suns perimeter shooters even easier. They would have to bench Grant Hill at the expense of losing his leadership. They would be taking on Dalembert’s hefty contact at the expense of Robin Lopez’s development. And the Suns would still have no draft picks for this coming offseason, having traded away all their picks already. This trade is clearly a loser.

Therefore, it’s all the more reason for the national press to insist that Suns management are the ones pursuing the deal. What an insult.