Quest Club of Arizona

I promise to stop blasting out posts after this one. After all, I need to get some sleep sometime.

I’m surfing the ‘Net and keep reading articles from people who claim to know basketball that declare the Suns need to blow up this team because the current roster has no chance to win the championship. With that kind of logic, then there really should be only four teams in the NBA: the Lakers, Magic, Cavaliers, and Celtics. The reality is, no other teams had a chance to win the title this season.

So why don’t we make it easier for everyone and just blow up the remaining 26 NBA franchises. Let’s see… Stoudemire to the Lakers, Bosh to the Cavs, Wade to the Magic, Yao to the Celtics…

I understand this “no hope for a championship” mentality. If you can’t win it all, you need to try something different. But there is a difference between trying and giving up. “Blowing up” implies an irrational, immediate act without any forethought or reasoning. In the NBA, this means doing things like salary dumps and making trades for trading sake.

The essence of sports is competition. Yes, the championship is the ultimate prize. Fundamentally, however, the goal is to compete to the best of your abilities. This is what makes sports meaningful.

For the Suns, I hope the ownership and management understand that as competitors, they need to uphold their honor and put the best possible team on the floor that they can. They also have every right to try and avoid losing millions of dollars in the process.

But to use the “no hope for a championship” excuse is not acceptable. What teams can legitimately say that they can win it all? Not many, that’s for sure. And the ones that have actually been blown up are some of the worst of all: the Kings, Grizzlies, Timberwolves… This is not the kind of company Robert Sarver and Steve Kerr should want to join.

It’s time for Sarver and Kerr to act like true professionals and do the honest hard work, which is using the players they currently have and figuring out how to win as many games as possible. The idea that some great combination of players is to be had by continuing to wheel-and-deal is a gambler’s ruin that only works in fantasy sports but not in real life.

To get an idea of what the Suns would be getting if they traded Amare Stoudemire to the Golden State Warriors for Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright, and Marco Belinelli and not Stephen Curry, below is a comparison of per game career stats.

Scoring:
Stoudemire – 21.1
Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli combined – 20.8

Free Throw Attempts
Stoudemire – 7.8
Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli combined – 4.5

Rebounds:
Stoudemire – 8.9
Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli combined – 12.6

Assists:
Stoudemire – 1.4
Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli combined – 2.8

Steals:
Stoudemire – 0.9
Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli combined – 1.7

Blocks:
Stoudemire – 1.5
Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli combined – 2.1

If the Suns could figure out how to put seven players on the court at the same time and play Biedrins, Wright, and Belinelli along with the four other Suns starters, the trade looks OK. All Steve Kerr needs to do is lobby David Stern for a 7-on-5 rule for the Suns, and it’ll be all set.

The Suns pick of Earl Clark in the first round is a great move. Surprisingly, the Suns look like they will actually keep Clark rather than trade him. Also a surprise is that the front office is not going on about how he is “NBA-ready” as they have with past drafts. The plan appears to be to bring him along slowly from the beginning, which is good. Of course nothing is certain. Yet, Clark has height, physical ability, and skills. If he develops his game, he could provide a major contribution to the team.

What happens next could revolutionize the Suns or doom the team to years of futility.

The hot rumor has the Suns trading Amare Stoudemire to the Golden State Warriors for 7-0 center Andres Biedrens, and any number of other players from rookie superstar-in-waiting, Stephen Curry to former lottery pick, Brandan Wright, to former apple-of-the-Suns-eye, Italian sharpshooter Marco Belinelli.

While Curry is a very intriguing possibility, the rest of the potential players from Golden State are role players. I’ve said it more than once and I’ll say it again: successful teams do not trade a first team All-NBA player for role players and expect to successfully rebuild from the trade. The only tangible results from such a trade are salary reduction followed by years of futility.

The key to the trade is Curry, a prolific scorer with an incredible feel for the game. However, the irony of this potential trade is palpable. Trade supporters rant about the defensive shortcomings of Stoudemire. Yet, it is well-known that Curry is not a defensive player either. Trade supporters choose to ignore this fact and would rather focus on Curry’s scoring ability.

Would the Suns become a better team in the future if they did obtain Curry and several Warrior role players? Probably not. I’m not doubting Curry’s potential. But the Suns will not improve by trading a great interior scorer for a great perimeter scorer. The plain fact is that the best teams can score in the paint. While these points certainly can came from penetration, the more effective weapon is having a big man scoring threat. Especially if you already have one on your team!

The worst case is the rumor that Curry is not even part of the deal. If so, the Suns would be trading their best scorer for a bunch of role players, none of whom are proven scorers in the NBA. (Of course Curry has yet to prove himself in the NBA either, but it’s a foregone conclusion the kid can score.) This deal would be an absolute disaster. Yet, the Suns front office is fully capable of making such a move of desperation.

The Suns were the highest scoring team in the league last year. And team management has committed to the running game. So if the Suns trade Stoudemire, they must get at least one proven scorer in return.

Despite the excitement, I don’t think the trade will happen. Stoudemire has just begun exercising and is a long way from returning to basketball activities. The Warriors must be concerned about Stoudemire’s retina and his knees. They also would want reassurances that he will sign a contract extension (at the max). I can’t see all this happening before the season starts.

Another rumor that seems to have much less traction in the public eye has the Suns trading newly acquired and assumed-to-be-retiring Ben Wallace to the New Orleans Hornets for Tyson Chandler. Injured or not, the chance to get Chandler would be a fantastic opportunity for the Suns. A front line of Chandler, Stoudemire, and Grant Hill backed up by Robin Lopez. Lou Amundson, and Jared Dudley is a lineup that offers real potential for improvement and competitiveness. This is the type of move that might also instantly turn around the team’s fortunes and transform the Suns into one of the better teams in the league.

The key is the Suns must keep Stoudemire. Instead of focusing on the negatives, the Suns need to realize that they in fact have a rare talent who can be a foundation player on a winning team. Just like how the Suns have taken a pragmatic approach to newly acquired Earl Clark, the Suns must also take a pragmatic approach with Amare Stoudemire and recognize that he can be a very important part of team’s future.

About an hour after I published my post about tomorrow’s draft came the news that the Suns finally unloaded $20M in salary plus another $1M in a trade kicker to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, the 46th pick (16th in the second round) in the upcoming draft, and $500K in cash. Oh yeah, the Suns included a player with the salary, Shaquille O’Neal.

We all know the Suns are saving serious money with this trade. The question, if there even is one, is whether or not Wallace and Pavlovic have a future with the Suns.

In the immediate aftermath of the Cavs crushing playoff loss to the Orlando Magic, Wallace indicated that he was seriously considering retirement as opposed to putting his body through the grind of another NBA season. This statement came when he was facing the prospect of playing for a contender. Now, Wallace is part of a team that might not even make the playoffs. Why would he even consider not retiring?

It is pretty difficult to walk away from $14M no matter how wealthy the person. It also may not be so easy for Wallace accept pennies on the dollar in a buyout. The Suns training staff have rebuilt injured players that other teams had given up on such as Antonio McDyess, Shaq, and Grant Hill. The Suns desperately need size and Wallace may have enough left in the tank for one more season. So maybe Wallace stays.

In different circumstances, Pavlovic may have had a chance to break in to the Suns rotation. He shot 41 percent from three-point range last year. And at 6-7/235, he has size for a shooting guard. But with a salary of almost $5M of which only $1.5M is guaranteed, the Suns will certainly cut Pavlovic in favor of signing one of their second round picks at a much lower salary.

And how about Amare Stoudemire?

The rumor mill suggests the Suns are not done dealing and it is possible another big trade could be made during the draft in conjunction with the Suns obtaining another first round pick. Are talks involving Stoudemire are heating up?

I am still convinced that Stoudemire is not good trade material yet. Yes, he has finally been cleared to begin exercising, but that is a long way away from proving he will be 100 percent at the beginning of the season. And as mentioned previously, what GM will trade quality players for this kind of risk?

From the Suns perspective, if they trade Amare, depending on what they receive in return they will have only one player under contract at 6-10 or taller in the form of 7-0 Robin Lopez. In comparison, the Magic start Dwight Howard (6-11), Rashard Lewis (6-10) and Hedo Turkoglu (6-10). The Lakers start Andrew Bynum (7-0), Pau Gasol (7-0) and Trevor Ariza (at a relatively puny 6-8). But the Lakers also play Lamar Odom (6-10) a lot of minutes.

C’mon, the Suns have to have a little pride, right? Is this the Suns or the Grizzlies? If they dump Amare without getting a big man in return, how can the team possibly compete at any level in this league with only one big man? I am a fan of Lou Amundson, but he is only 6-9 and clearly cannot come close to filling the void if the Suns lost both Shaq and Amare.

So the prediction is Wallace stays, Stoudemire stays, and Pavlovic goes.

Many pundits are negative on tomorrow’s 2009 NBA draft saying it is one of the worst in recent memory. However, I think it is one of the most intriguing. There is little discrepancy between, say, the 6th pick and the 20th. Therefore, mock drafts have been all over the place as far as which player is going to which team. This unpredictability is fun.

One rumor has the Suns drafting a point guard with the 14th pick. Call me crazy, but if the ultimate objective is to win a championship, then I offer one rule for any self-respecting NBA GM:

Do not draft a point guard in the lottery!

You want proof? Let’s look at the teams that have recently won the title and who they actually had at PG.

1999, San Antonio Spurs: Avery Johnson, free agent

2000, 2001, 2002, 2009, Los Angeles Lakers: Derek Fisher, 24th pick

2003, 2005, 2007, Spurs: Tony Parker, 28th pick

2004, Detroit Pistons: Chauncey Billups, free agent

2006, Miami Heat: Jason Williams, free agent

2008, Boston Celtics: Rajon Rondo, 21st pick (courtesy of your Phoenix Suns)

I know that Billups and Williams were, in fact, lottery picks. However, neither won the championship with the team that drafted them. Billups was picked 3rd by the Celtics but was traded or signed as a free agent by four teams until he signed as a free agent by Detroit. Williams was drafted 7th by the Sacramento Kings. He was traded a few seasons later to the Memphis Grizzlies and then a few seasons later to the Heat. Williams had declined to the point where he was a role player on the Heat’s championship squad, not a focal point.

The simple fact is teams that draft a PG in the lottery do not go on to win the championship with said PG.

Furthermore, merely finding a lottery PG with staying power is a difficult proposition. For every Derrick Rose there are a slew of flameouts such as Randy Foye (just traded), Acie Law (just traded), Jerryd Bayless (traded right after he was drafted), and Mike Conley (probably will be traded). There is also Russell Westbrook, who had a great rookie year as a PG, but is now being considered in a move to shooting guard by the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Intelligent, competitive guards with skill and court vision can develop into great point guards. Late draft picks and free agents fit the bill. Tony Parker is one example. Avery Johnson is another. For the Suns, I wouldn’t put Goran Dragic in that category at the moment. But the fact is he has skill and court vision for an uptempo game. He is also smart and competitive. When looking at team needs and intelligently rebuilding the franchise, Dragic will be “good enough” at point guard for the Suns future.

Another thing to remember is teams that win in the playoffs usually have size. Teams are much better off drafting a non-PG in the lottery, someone with height and all-around skills.

We all know that the Suns are severely lacking depth in taller players. They must consider tall skilled players such as the ones they brought in for a follow up workout last weekend: Earl Clark, James Johnson, and Austin Daye. Not only do all three players have a nice upside, but as decent ball handlers, any one of these three could develop into a mismatch dream for the Suns. Also any one of these three will do more towards pushing the Suns towards greater achievements than a point guard would.

Seems that talk show chatter has all but confirmed that Amare Stoudemire will be traded this offseason, and the possible rewards of such a deal range from Rajon Rondo to Caron Butler. (See Gambo’s blog post on KTAR.com.)

Unfortunately for trade supporters, the reality is that Stoudemire can’t be traded right now nor any time in the near future. HOOPSWORLD published an update and I’ll quote here since it is buried in a multi-topic article:

“HOOPSWORLD recently caught up with Suns’ GM Steve Kerr who explained that Amar’e still has not be cleared for any physical activity. In fact, while Stoudemire’s detached retina recovery is on schedule, the byproduct of this surgery is a thick dense fluid that builds up inside the eye and that additional surgery or extended rest is the only way to clear it up. Kerr described Amar’e as having to lie flat on his side for long periods of time and allow the fluid to drain out of the eye naturally. While this is not a setback, it is a long, painstaking process. Stoudemire is expected to make a full recovery, but the odds any team considers trading for a player who has been inactive for the better part of 5 months is slim and until Amar’e returns to the court and proves there are no side effects or vision issues his value is extremely limited according to league sources.”

If you were running the Celtics, Wizards, or any other NBA team, what are the chances that you would trade some of your best players for one who literally can’t get out of bed right now due to doctor’s orders? I doubt even “Fire Sale” GM Chris Wallace of the Memphis Grizzlies would entertain the idea.

The only way a trade happens is if the Suns give away Stoudemire in their own fire sale. I’m not past the Suns making such a move of desperation since their recent track record of trades is spotty at best. But the chances of this happening are very slim.

Talk show hosts and bloggers (like myself) are all entitled to opinions. So if KTAR’s Gambo wants to continue to beat the drum that Stoudemire will definitely be gone this summer, that is his right.

Just keep in mind that Gambo is flat out wrong.

So who was it that hit Suns GM Steve Kerr and Suns majority owner Robert Sarver on their heads and knocked some sense into them?

Kerr suddenly appears to have realized the wonders of “cap space.” The high-dollar players whom Kerr is trying to dump for expiring contracts, draft picks, and underachieving role players might all be off the books by the end of next season, giving the Suns the chance to be a big factor in the highly rated 2010 free agent market. Kerr now admits this is a good thing. (See Paola Boivin’s post on azcentral.)

In strange symmetry, Sarver has proclaimed that he has no intention of owning a 29-game winner. (See Dan Bickley’s post on azcentral.) We also know that the Suns don’t have a first round draft pick in 2010. So not only would it be unacceptable to Sarver for the Suns to turn into a league doormat, but there is also no reward for failure. They traded their 2010 first round pick without lottery protection to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Kurt Thomas trade.

So will the Suns now not make any major trades in 2009? Not so fast. The Dallas Mavericks were feeling good about themselves after dominating the San Antonio Spurs in the first round playoff series. Yet, after being on the losing side of a lopsided playoff matchup against the Denver Nuggets in the second round, the Mavs appear to be readying themselves for an active offseason.

Then in the biggest upset of the playoffs, the Cleveland Cavaliers melted down in the conference finals and now cannot sit still in the offseason. We all know Shaquille O’Neal would be a good fit with the Cavs and he would certainly make the Mavs a better team.

Perhaps common sense might prevail in the Suns front office, but that still doesn’t mean they will not make a big trade. However, there will be more thought put into the process this time around. And it also means that I have to adjust my post about who will definitely be gone. Shaq now moves into the “Maybe” category, joining Matt Barnes, Grant Hill, and Amare Stoudemire.

Moving on the the remaining players on the roster, the rest of this post focuses on players who will definitely be back for next season.

Louis Amundson
(’08-’09 salary: $797,581, ’09-’10 salary/status: $855,189)

Jared Dudley
(’08-’09 salary: $1,222,320, ’09-’10 salary/status: $1,307,640)
It’s logical to group Amundson and Dudley into the same category because both players have earned a slot in the regular rotation through hard work and hustle. Amundson was a free agent steal and Dudley is the saving grace of the Raja Bell/Boris Diaw midseason trade. Hopefully, they will both continue to grow as players next season and both are definite keepers.

Alando Tucker
(’08-’09 salary: $1,001,880, ’09-’10 salary/status: $1,071,720)

Robin Lopez
(’08-’09 salary: $1,623,720, ’09-’10 salary/status: $1,745,520)

Goran Dragic
(’08-’09 salary: $1,700,000, ’09-’10 salary/status: $1,836,000)
The three Suns players still on their reasonably affordable guaranteed rookie scale contracts are also keepers. Tucker, who was a prolific scorer during his rookie stint in the D-League, seems remarkably passive during his gametime in the NBA. But he has a cheap contract and is certain to return.

Lopez also showed flashes of potential, but he still looked awkward and out of place even at the end of the season. Perhaps with his first season under his belt and a chance to work on his game all summer, Lopez can emerge as a regular contributor. If he can do so, it will be a big plus for the Suns, who are severely lacking size.

Of the three, Dragic emerged late in the season as the one with the most potential. Clearly suited to the uptempo style of coach Alvin Gentry, Dragic became a more reliable ball handler and a more accurate shooter once Gentry loosened the reins and let the rookie guard freelance without consequences for little mistakes. The second round pick of ’08 received lottery money in order to ensure his escape from his oversees contract. His performance in the last 31 games of the season provided hope that Dragic will live up to that potential in the coming seasons.

Leandro Barbosa
(’08-’09 salary: $6,100,000, ’09-’10 salary/status: $6,600,000)
Last pre-season’s trade talk involving Barbosa was remarkable in its short-sightedness. At a tick over $6M per year, Barbosa is one of the best bargains in the NBA. Many times outperforming the much higher paid Jason Richardson, Barbosa ironically went from trade bait to untouchable in Steve Kerr’s mind as the 2009 trade deadline approached. And there is no reason to think that Barbosa will be traded any time soon. He plays hard and doesn’t complain about coming off the bench. Barbosa has three more years left on his current contract and should be entering the prime years of his career.

Jason Richardson
(’08-’09 salary: $12,222,222, ’09-’10 salary/status: $13,333,333)
It’s difficult to imagine that a $13M player is a project but this is exactly what the Suns have in Richardson. He is the symbol of Steve Kerr’s reign as GM. At the time of the trade last December, Kerr made a point to talk about Richardson’s defense since Kerr’s mantra has always been about defense. Needless to say, the Suns were an even worse defensive team this year than during the Mike D’Antoni era, and Richardson is a poor defender at best. Many times he simply looked lost after blowing assignment after assignment. His shortcomings are even more glaring when compared to the player Richardson replaced, lockdown defender Raja Bell.

Kerr can talk all he wants to about defending the pick-and-roll, but good team defense starts with the perimeter. Clearly, Richardson knows how to score, but the only way the Suns will become a more competitive team is if Richardson learns how to play better defense.

Steve Nash
(’08-’09 salary: $12,250,000, ’09-’10 salary/status: $13,125,000 team option)
With only partial money guaranteed to Nash for next season it is still possible that he will not be back with the team. Of course if he were to leave, Robert Sarver would see season ticket renewals plummet even further. As the face of the franchise and perhaps the most popular player with the paying public, it is vital for the Suns to retain Nash.

However, Nash has played it cool so far this offseason in deciding to wait and see how things unfold before starting any contract extension talks. This is a smart move. If the Suns jettison Shaq and Stoudemire and replace them with the likes of Ben Wallace and Tyrus Thomas, then Nash would rather play somewhere else. And who could blame him?

Ultimately, it’s difficult to believe that Jason Richardson will be earning more money next year than Nash. The indications are that Nash wants big money for a contract extension. And if the Suns are willing to fork over $13M – $14M for a player of Richardson’s caliber, then they must see the logic in rewarding the two-time league MVP and leader of the run-and-gun offense with a nice paycheck to finish out his career in Phoenix.