Quest Club of Arizona

How many times have teams said they are one player away from contending? Far too many times, that’s for sure. Yet, in two recent losses for the Phoenix Suns versus San Antonio and Utah, it is clear that the Suns truly are “one player” away from being contenders.

Of course contending in the West means fighting for second place behind the Los Angeles Lakers. Nevertheless, it is not a bad position to be in.

In the salad days from 2004 to 2008 when the Suns averaged 58 wins per season, the team had a secondary ball handling option which represented a distributing and scoring threat that opposing defenses were forced to deal with. In the 2004-05, that player was Joe Johnson. From 2005 through 2008 that player was Boris Diaw.

Although these two players’ games differ dramatically, both share the ability to score 1-on-1 or set up scoring opportunities for teammates. Mixed in with Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire, the Suns were formidable during crunch time as revealed by their winning percentage during this time period.

Following the mid-season trade in 2008 that sent Diaw and Raja Bell to Charlotte for Jason Richardson and Jared Dudley, the Suns all but lost their reliable secondary primetime ball handler to supplement Nash. In their failed playoff run last year as well as recent losses this season, opposing teams were able to shut down the Suns offense in close games by crowding and trapping Nash.

This season the Suns have evolved into a better fundamental team by defending, rebounding, and running their half court offense rather than taking boatload of perimeter shots in early offense. Yet, the biggest vulnerability remains the rest of the team’s ability to get good shots when Nash is neutralized by defenses.

We have seen on occasion Grant Hill step up and dominate in the final minutes, and there have been games where the defense comes up with key stops or turnovers. However, against the more disciplined teams, such as the Spurs or Jazz, the Suns were clearly fighting uphill in the crucial stages.

The impending return of Leandro Barbosa to the lineup could fill the need for a 1-on-1 scoring threat but his abilities as a floor leader have always been questionable. Goran Dragic has had a great season but he has yet to become a consistent threat anywhere approaching the level that Johnson and Diaw had provided in past seasons. Earl Clark has shown the instincts to fill this multi-faceted role, but he is still very raw and is at least a season away from even earning consistent minutes, let alone crucial time during close games.

Hopefully, the Suns will bounce back from another disappointing loss to the Jazz after giving up a double-digit lead and continue to be one of the hottest teams in the league. A playoff spot appears pretty secure at this point and the final 19 games will determine their seeding. However, the thought of another tumultuous offseason full of trade rumors and rebuilding theories is still a reality.

If the management staff instead views this team as a reformulated unit on the rise, then they are one free agent signing or rapid player development away from making a huge impact in the Western Conference. Let’s hope Robert Sarver and Steve Kerr see it this way.

Robin Lopez = Impact Player?

The presence of Robin Lopez in the Phoenix Suns starting lineup has coincided with a complete turnaround in the team’s fortunes. Initially seen as a 1st round draft mistake, in just one month Lopez has emerged as a legitimate NBA starting center.

In the 18 games with “Rockin’ Robin” in the lineup, the Suns are 12-6 despite the fact that Lopez became a starter in the midst of the team’s low point of the season. During an 11-game stretch, the Suns went 3-8 which included 2-4 in Lopez’s first 6 starts. They have gone 10-2 since.

Sure, there was the Amare Stoudemire fourth-quarter benching during the Suns January 28 win over Dallas. And there was Alvin Gentry’s recent pep talk to Jason Richardson. These factors have lit a fire under these two players. But no change for the Suns has been as drastic as moving Lopez from part-time benchwarmer to full-time starter.

Looking at Lopez’s stats, the change has been dramatic:

Points per game:
Starter, 12.2
Bench, 4.0

Field goal percentage:
Starter, 61.9%
Bench, 55.2%

Free throw percentage:
Starter,77.1%
Bench, 57.1%

Rebounds per game
Starter, 6.2
Bench, 2.8

After the Suns flew out of the gate 21 games into the season, I was still bearish on the Suns overall prospects. Simple statistics suggested that they would decline to the point that their playoff possibilities would be in jeopardy. In contrast, the most recent 18 games tell an entirely different story. Here is a quick look comparison of the early 2009-10 Suns stats with the Robin Lopez version:

Points per game
Starting Lopez, 108.0
First 21 games, 109.3

Points allowed per game
Starting Lopez, 103.7
First 21 games, 106.0

Rebounds per game
Starting Lopez, 44.6
First 21 games, 41.9

Rebounds allowed per game
Starting Lopez, 41.0
First 21 games, 43.3

Field goal percentage
Starting Lopez, 48.1%
First 21 games, 49.3%

Field goal percentage allowed
Starting Lopez, 45.5%
First 21 games, 46.2%

While the early ’09-’10 Suns relied on sharpshooting to outscore their opponents, the new Suns have been succeeding with better defense and rebounding. Furthermore, the early Suns lost 5 games by 15 points or more in 21 games while the new Suns have not suffered any such blowout losses. Their worst defeat was an 11 point loss to Chicago.

With 23 games left in the season, the signs point to a strong finish for the Suns. The presence of Lopez has brought a toughness to the lineup that was sorely lacking. With the ability to play better defense and rebound, the team’s confidence in close games has increased dramatically. While this year’s Suns certainly won’t challenge the Los Angeles Lakers, I do believe they are now a very solid playoff team with a realistic chance of advancing to the second round.

As we are less than 24 hours away from the NBA trade deadline, of course, rumors are flying about the impending trade involving future former Phoenix Sun, Amare Stoudemire. Suns fans may have trouble understanding the mindset of Suns GM Steve Kerr and majority owner Robert Sarver.

Exclusive to this blog, we have uncovered exactly how the Suns have come to their current situation. It is detailed below. Prepare to be amazed.

Title:
Robert Sarver’s and Steve Kerr’s blueprint to win an NBA Championship

Current Team Situation:
Phoenix Suns are in 6th place playoff position in the Western Conference.

Evaluation and Goal:
Unsatisfactory—Suns should be in 1st place on the way to winning a Championship!

Current Player Situation:
Amare Stoudemire, leading scorer, rebounder, and shot blocker at 21.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.0 blk.

Evaluation and Goal:
Unsatisfactory—Stoudemire should be averaging 30.0 ppg, 14.0 rpg, 3.0 blk!

Current Player Salary Situation:
Amare Stoudemire has asked for an extension less than the max.

Evaluation and Goal:
Still too much—Stoudemire should only be paid as much as Boris Diaw!

Action Items:
Trade Amare asap!

Best 8 Players to Target and Their Statuses:

1. Lebron James, free agent player option but not interested in Suns
2. Dwayne Wade, free agent player option but not interested in Suns
3. Chris Bosh, free agent player option but not interested in Suns
4. Joe Johnson, free agent but not interested in Suns (been-there-done-that)
5. Carlos Boozer, free agent but not interested in Suns
6. Shaquille O’Neal, free agent but Suns not interested (been-there-done-that)
7. J.J. Hickson, AVAILABLE!
8. Mario Chalmers, Quentin Richardson, Daequan Cook, Dorell Wright and draft picks (TREAT THIS COMBO AS ONE PLAYER), AVAILABLE!

There you have it. When you read that the Suns are considering their best possbile options in trading Amare, you know that they are speaking from the heart.

We all know about the rumors concerning the Phoenix Suns trading Amare Stoudemire. Parallel to these discussions is the recent statement made by Stoudemire about possibly actually opting in for next season. It’s been everywhere on NBA news sites but in case you haven’t had the chance yet, here is the link.

Let’s look at this from the Suns management perspective. When it all boils down, it doesn’t make their job any easier or more difficult.

The overriding impetus behind the Amare rumors has to do with value, as in a max contract does not reflect the value Amare brings to the Suns but if he opts out and leaves after this season, the Suns don’t receive any value in return.

In reality, there is no separating these two value concepts. There is little chance that the Suns will land a lottery draft pick in a Stoudemire trade. Either Stoudemire will indicate he won’t re-sign (example: Golden State) or teams will simply not be willing to part with a sure bet lottery pick (example: Philadelphia). This means that in any proposed trade, the Suns will receive existing NBA players, either young or old, for a total combined salary closely approximate to Stoudemire’s.

Let’s remember that above all else, the Suns are looking after their budget. Ideally, they want to get under the NBA luxury tax threshold.

Consider the hottest rumor of the day: Amare to Philadelphia for Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert (remember, no draft picks since the 76ers don’t want to trade a guaranteed lottery pick). The reason why many fans and commentators like this trade is because at least the Suns would receive the “best plausible deal for STAT” that they could get. This popular notion is explained in this blog post.

For now, forget the notion that this trade makes little sense basketball-wise (see my previous post) and focus on the financial ramifications. If Amare opts-in for next year, he will make $17.7 million and then become a free agent in 2011. If the Suns trade for Iguodala and Dalembert, their combined salary for next season is $25.5 million. Since this is a 2-for-1 trade, the Suns would be spared the need to sign a minimum free agent to remain at the NBA minimum 13-player roster size. If you add the $1.2 million veteran minimum to Stoudemire’s salary for next season, it comes out to $18.9 million or $6.6 million less than the combined salaries of Iguodala and Dalembert.

Why would the budget-conscious Suns make a trade that would increase their payroll by $6.6 million for next year? Also consider that Iguodala is locked in to his current contract until 2013 at an average of $13.5 million for three years. Factor in the threat that player salaries might see a dramatic reduction with the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) after next season  and Iguodala’s contract has the potential to be quite an albatross for cost-cutting franchises like the Suns.

There is another blog post that opines “Why Amare Stoudemire HAS To Opt Out.” Interestingly, the author contradicts his own reasoning by stating that the new CBA could dramatically cut salaries but then suggests the Suns could trade Stoudemire for “one nice player who’s got a long term deal.” This is another way of showing the Suns financially what a noose is and then how to hang themselves with it.

Forget young superstars on the cheap, like Kevin Durant. They are not for sale. Today’s upper-mid or mid-level “nice player” locked in long term is tomorrow’s Wally Szczerbiak or Brian Cardinal. Trading for a long term contract is very risky, especially when average salaries will be decreasing.

If the Suns seek to not increase payroll and not lock themselves into a large, long-term contract, then their other option is to seek the proverbial “expiring contract” of a player whose contract ends at the conclusion of this season. By its nature an expiring contract implies that the Suns would have no interest in retaining the player. For example, the Suns swapped Shaquille O’Neal for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic. Although these two players didn’t have expiring contracts, they were bought out, which has the same effect. Neither player ever donned a Suns uniform.

If the Suns simply let Stoudemire’s contract end and then see him off to pursue other opportunities, the effect on the franchise would be the same as if they traded for an expiring contract. Whether this happens in 2010 or 2011 is all up to Amare. In 2010, either the Suns pay Stoudemire or they pay comparable money to a top free agent. In 2011, salaries may see a dramatic decrease, but the free agent pool will not likely be stellar either.

The only salient point in all this discussion is that the Suns management needs to decide if they want to build a winning team or a budgeted team. If they decide on the latter, then a salary dump trade involving Stoudemire will always be available or they can just let him walk.

If they decide on the former, they will need to pay Stoudemire or some other player who offers at least as much productivity as Amare. Certainly, the Suns have every right to stay within the salary cap, but there is room for one max or near-max contract on such a team. Personally, I don’t see Stoudemire as a max player, but he is near-max. Short of acquiring LeBron, Kobe, Wade, or even Bosh, I don’t think the Suns can do any better than to try their best to retain Amare. Offer him fair money at near-max and let him be the one to choose.

The latest hot rumor concerning the Suns never-ending search to unload Amare Stoudemire has them trading their power forward to the Philadelphia 76ers in exchange for Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert. Supposedly the Suns are initiating the conversation and the “Sixers are the side holding up the deal.” You can read the story here.

If there is any truth to the rumor, then Suns GM Steve Kerr and majority owner Robert Sarver truly are incapable of running a winning NBA franchise.

Here’s the 5-cent rundown on why this proposed trade is a loser.

Iguodala is either a small forward or shooting guard. With Amare gone, the Suns would have no replacement at power forward. Channing Frye is an even lesser rebounder and defender than Stoudemire and has a non-existent inside game. With his great perimeter shooting, Frye could serve as a “stretch 4” but this would be useless without a power game.

Believe it or not, Robin Lopez would be thrust into the role as the Suns primary low post threat. There’s a lot to like about Lopez right now, but it would be premature and poor career management to make him “The Man” during the 2009-10 season.

Speaking of Lopez, his emergence would be put into limbo with the addition of Dalembert. As a true center, Dalembert is known mostly for his defense, shot blocking and rebounding. Sounds a lot like what the Suns want from Lopez, right? On top of that, Dalembert’s $12.3 million contract next season would make it difficult to justify bringing him off the bench. For this very reason, the 76ers are trying to trade Dalembert and are finding the market to be very limited.

Back to Iguodala, his place in the Suns starting lineup would come at the expense of either Jason Richardson or Grant Hill. Richardson is scheduled to make $14.4 million next season, so benching him would make as much sense as benching Dalembert.

Grant Hill is one of the classiest players in the NBA. He re-signed with the Suns only after they convinced him that their future plans actually pointed towards building a winning team (not “rebuilding”) and that Hill would play a major role in helping to bring along the younger players.

Trading for Iguodala and then immediately benching Hill would be a slap in the face for Hill, not because anyone is arguing that Hill is better than Iguodala right now, but because it would be symbolic of relegating Hill to a lesser role within the team.

In the end, the Suns would have a gaping hole in the low post. It would make the opponent’s job of shutting down the Suns perimeter shooters even easier. They would have to bench Grant Hill at the expense of losing his leadership. They would be taking on Dalembert’s hefty contact at the expense of Robin Lopez’s development. And the Suns would still have no draft picks for this coming offseason, having traded away all their picks already. This trade is clearly a loser.

Therefore, it’s all the more reason for the national press to insist that Suns management are the ones pursuing the deal. What an insult.

Of the various missteps and bad decisions that characterize the Robert Sarver era of Phoenix Suns ownership, the one that fans believe started it all was the Joe Johnson sign-and-trade with the Atlanta Hawks. Essentially, the Suns (Sarver) refused to meet Johnson’s salary demands, negotiations got personal, and the Suns managed to salvage value for getting rid of Johnson by acquiring Boris Diaw and the first round pick that eventually became Robin Lopez.

In his final season with the Suns, Johnson was a key player for the youngest and most promising team in the NBA. How events unraveled over the past five seasons suggest that it was the Suns who cared more about money and less about winning. All the selling of player contracts, buyouts, and salary dumps have put the Suns on the verge of collapse.

The Hawks are currently second in the East and fourth overall in the NBA, based on won-loss records. Johnson has been a major contributor to the success of a team that was among the worst in the league at the time Johnson joined the franchise. The Hawks won 26 games in his first season with the team and now are on pace to win 55. In their most recent game, Johnson’s Hawks completed their first season sweep of the Boston Celtics in 11 years.

But the epilogue of the Suns/Johnson saga may see the Suns exonerated in this particular case. And it all comes down to how much Johnson cares about winning.

Bear in mind that the recession-era NBA economy is much different from the booming days of when Johnson was last a free agent. Last offseason, Carlos Boozer opted-in to the final year of his contract at $12.6 million with the Utah Jazz despite rumors suggesting he was seeking a long-term deal in the range of $15 million per year. True, Boozer is an injury-risk player, but he also recently  averaged over 20 points and 10 rebounds for two seasons and was the biggest name free agent last offseason. His decision to opt-in speaks volumes about the state of the NBA economy.

With Johnson’s current contract nearing its end, he was offered a four-year, $60 million extension by the Hawks. This season, Johnson will make a tick under $15 million. So the proposed extension provides a small increase. Johnson flatly refused the offer. And unlike the Suns’ Amare Stoudemire, he has not unequivocally stated that his priority is to stay with his current team. The prevailing thought is that Johnson will leave the Hawks in the offseason. Yahoo Sports goes as far to suggest that Johnson will sign with the Chicago Bulls.

The NBA salary cap is expected to be reduced as league revenues continue to decline. Many franchises are expected to cut payroll as a result. Yet, with the Hawks gaining stature as a true contender in the East, it is Johnson who is looking for a big payday as opposed to a championship ring.

When Johnson was with the Suns, they were the rising young team on the verge of joining the NBA elite. The Hawks are now in a similar situation. And like five years ago, Johnson is apparently unhappy and seeking a big pay raise. I wonder who the Hawks fans see as the “bad guy” in this player drama?

As if on queue, with the All-Star break approaching the Suns are once again near the top of the rumor mill looking to trade away a valuable asset for questionable return. Two years ago it was Shawn Marion for Shaq. Last year, Raja Bell and Boris Diaw for Jason Richardson and Jared Dudley. This year Amare Stoudemire for … well, if it happens it will certainly be for something less valuable than Amare.

The Shaq trade resulted in a year-and-a-half of controversy, disappointment, and finally a fire sale. At least the Cleveland Cavaliers seem to be benefitting from Shaq’s presence. The Richardson and Dudley trade resulted in a few clutch games but mostly missed shots followed by turnovers in crunch time. Add in the fire sale expulsion of Kurt Thomas three years ago, and the trend suggests that there is little hope that an actual Amare trade will do anything to help the Suns. The best result would be merely minimizing losses in the form of how many players could be bought out and/or how many “expiring contracts” can be assumed.

The irony is that in the Suns most recent game, a victory against Golden State, the five players who made a difference were Goran Dragic, Robin Lopez, Earl Clark, Channing Frye, and Louis Amundson. Three were players drafted by the Suns (Dragic, Lopez, Clark) and the other two were free agent signees (Frye, Amundson). Players who the Suns recently traded for were either on the bench or long since departed to other franchises. What does that say about Suns GM Steve Kerr’s and Suns majority owner Robert Sarver’s collective ability to negotiate trades? Not a whole lot.

The ghost of 2008-09 is still chasing this 2009-10 team. Forty-five games into this season and the Suns are only one game ahead of last year’s pace (26-19 versus 25-10). If the Suns trade away Stoudemire, it’s possible the team may win only 8 to 10 more games the rest of the way and finish well below .500. Fans may not be happy with the current Suns, but an Amare-less lineup would turn the Suns into a team barely better than the New Jersey Nets.

Like any blogger, I do my share of armchair coaching. But this time. I’ll be more direct. Instead of trading Amare, the Suns should focus on what they intended to do in the offseason: play better defense, get younger, and compete with more energy. Stick with the core three veterans: Stoudemire, Steve Nash, and Grant Hill, and add players who fit the mold, i.e., some of the ones mentioned above.

Dragic is clearly the best defensive guard on the roster and he is a high-energy, sticky defense, never-give-up type of player who should be paired with Nash in the backcourt. Jason Richardson can continue starting. He does best when it doesn’t matter: at the beginning of games and the end of blowouts. However, the majority of minutes should go to Dragic, who can either relieve Nash at point guard or pair up with him at shooting guard.

The Robin Lopez Experiment as a starter has worked out better than expected and could very well be a long-term solution to pairing a legitimate big-man center with Stoudemire at power forward. Lopez surprisingly has great hands, which serves him well in a pick-and-roll offense. He also has a soft shooting touch as evidenced by his improving short-range shot and free-throw shooting (8-8 against Golden State).

Clark is a fumbling, bumbling rookie, but he’s still the best defensive wing player on the bench and he has length, something the Suns have been lacking all season. He has a nice shooting stroke that will become more accurate with more playing time.

In order for the Suns to break out, it requires a major change. And this change needs to start with the front office realizing that a trade will not help the team in the short or long term. The roster can be reworked with players already under contract. Expensive contracts, like Jason Richardson, and likable intelligent players, like Jared Dudley, may suffer in the makeover. However, the season is at a very critical juncture. For the team to turnaround their fortunes, it’s time to rely on players that were hand-picked by coaches and management: Dragic, Lopez and Clark. After all, it was Kerr, Sarver and Gentry who selected these players in the draft for a reason. It is now time for them to trust their judgment and try to wins games with their draft picks making major contributions.