Quest Club of Arizona

Here’s a depressing fact. After 39 games, this year’s Phoenix Suns are only one game better than last year’s team: 24-15 versus 23-16. Those 2008-09 Suns were roundly criticized and their failure to meet expectations cost Terry Porter his job as head coach.

With a much different team from last year, the Suns began this season with lowered expectations. Yet, a 14-3 start captured the imagination of the fans and the attention around the NBA. What has followed is a classic meltdown, the type of which we have not seen in a decade.

After last night’s loss against the Indiana Pacers, it appears that things won’t improve any time soon. In typical fashion, another big Suns lead evaporated quickly in the 3rd quarter. It is clear that teams know that no Suns lead is safe. Even the worst teams in the league are emboldened by the fact that if they keep playing hard, they are likely to prevail against the Suns.

I am usually an optimist. Even going into this season, I believed that if the players performed up to their potential, this year’s team had a chance to do better than last year. However, now that the Suns have gone through a 10-12 stretch and their playoff position looks to be in serious jeopardy, there is no doubt that something needs to change.

The Suns have only two big, physical players on their bench: Robin Lopez and Jarron Collins. Yet, it is common that neither ever sees any playing time. Lopez has only appeared in two of the last five games, including a DNP last night. The last time Collins played was in 2009, and it makes one wonder if Alando Tucker was somehow secretly placed back on the Suns bench.

The Suns continue to show a complete lack of interior defense (to go along with their time-proven lack of perimeter defense) as well as an inability to keep opposing teams from getting offensive rebounds. It is very difficult to understand why they have not turned to one or both of these players for stretches of time during games to knock some heads around and create havoc.

By the way, interior defense is what fans and commentators completely took for granted last year with Shaquille O’Neal.

It’s one thing to lose after blowing a big lead. It’s quite another to lose this way while playing as soft as a wet pancake. The current 9-man (or 9 1/2-man) rotation is seriously lacking in toughness. And when the offense sputters, the Suns lack of size and physical play means that they simply can’t compete going down the stretch in close games. True, neither Lopez or Collins is an offensive threat. Neither is going to chuck up three-pointers and other long outside shots that the Suns have come to depend on. However, their physical play and size can more than compensate when defense and rebounding determines which team wins.

No doubt about it, no one would have guessed that after 21 games in the 2009-10 season, the Phoenix Suns would be 15-6. Expectations have been raised for a team that most predicted would win fewer than 40 games. Now it’s looking like the playoffs are a real possibility with an outside chance of home court advantage for the first round. Yet, despite the optimism, it’s still not clear whether or not this Suns team is for real.

The losses have been ugly. Their 27-point loss to the New York Knicks was an embarrassment. There have been blowout losses to championship-caliber teams. Then there was a bad loss to the up-and-down New Orleans Hornets. But the Hornets are always hard to beat when they shoot over 50 percent for threes, and at least the Suns had a glimmer of hope to win late in the game. For all the other losses, the Suns were no-hopers.

There have also been quality wins. Perhaps the best was the Suns’ upset on the road over the Boston Celtics. Overall, the Suns are playing well and doing an excellent job of sticking to their game plan. They have won games in the fourth quarter by executing in the half court, playing good defense, and denying opponents second-chance opportunities. Appearances suggest that this year’s team may go far. But statistics tell a different story. This team may be shooting better, but all other statistics are below previous seasons.

Here is a quick look comparison of this year’s Suns (so far) against the historic 2004-05 team that won 62 games and the last of the great Seven Seconds Or Less (SSOL) teams of 2006-07 that recorded 61 wins:

Points per game
2004-05 (82 games), 110.4
2006-07 (82 games), 110.2
2009-10 (21 games), 109.3

Points allowed per game
2004-05, 103.3
2006-07, 102.9
2009-10, 106.0

Rebounds per game
2004-05, 44.1
2006-07, 40.5
2009-10, 41.9

Rebounds allowed per game
2004-05, 46.1
2006-07, 42.8
2009-10, 43.3

Field goal percentage
2004-05, 47.7%
2006-07, 49.4%
2009-10, 49.3%

Field goal percentage allowed
2004-05, 44.5%
2006-07, 45.7
2009-10, 46.2%

Record after 21 games:
2004-05, 18-3
2006-07, 15-6
2009-10, 15-6

Interestingly, the stats might have been nearly identical if it weren’t for the alarmingly large amount of blowout losses suffered by this year’s team. This season, the Suns have already lost 5 games by 15 points or more in just 21 games. In comparison, the 2004-05 team only had 4 such losses and the 2006-07 team only had 3 for their entire 82 games!

Even the great underdog Suns of 2005-06 that came within 2 games of moving to the NBA Finals lost only 6 games by 15 points or more during the regular season.

Perhaps the discrepancy this season is due to the bench playing more. In the past, the starters consistently played big minutes which probably meant the Suns would be able to stay closer in losing games. Perhaps it’s because this year’s star players are older than the past great teams which translates to more fatigue and less resiliency. Perhaps it’s the schedule, with 14 road games out of 21 this season compared to 10 out of the first 21 in 2004 and 11 out of 21 in 2006.

Favorably, this year’s team has already won 6 games by 15 points or more. In 2004, they had 7 such wins in the first 21 games but in 2006, they only had 3.

This year’s team is still young both in terms of age and in maturity. The 2004-05 team was the youngest in the league but had some amazingly mature young players. This year’s team has more players who are still emerging as regular contributors. For Frye, Dudley, Amundson, Dragic, Lopez and Clark, team success in the NBA is new to them. They will need to continue to improve, make the proper adjustments, and become more consistent and reliable as opponents familiarize themselves with the Suns attack.

The Suns are entering what might be the most important stretch of the season. Including Sunday’s game against the Lakers, during an 8-game stretch, the Suns will face 7 quality opponents: Lakers (already lost), Dallas, Orlando, Denver, San Antonio, Portland (minus Greg Oden), and Cleveland. The only respite is Washington on the December 19th. The Suns must win half of these games or better to continue building on their great season start. If they manage only 3 wins or fewer, there is the risk that this promising team may begin to struggle to hold on to a playoff position as the season wears on. This stretch will let everyone know what kind of team these Phoenix Suns really are.

With today’s announcement that small forward Grant Hill is returning to the Suns, 6-11 forward/center Channing Frye has agreed to join the Suns, and Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic will be bought out, it appears that the 2009/10 roster is set.

I cannot imagine the Suns paying any more than necessary in order to fill the roster to the NBA minimum 13 players. So 2nd round pick Taylor Griffin is all but assured a spot on the team unless he completely tanks it over the summer. The rookie minimum is $457,588 and it’s unlikely the Suns could find another player they like and with potential for the same amount.

Here are your 2009/10 Suns:

Amare Stoudemire, PF-C
Jason Richardson, SG-SF
Steve Nash, PG
Leandrinho Barbosa, PG-SG
Grant Hill, SF
Channing Frye, PF-C
Goran Dragic, PG
Robin Lopez, C
Earl Clark, SG-SF
Jared Dudley, SF-PF
Alando Tucker, SG-SF
Louis Amundson, SF-PF
Taylor Griffin, SF

Joining his fourth team in less than two seasons, ESPN reports that former Suns player Shawn Marion has been dealt to the Dallas Mavericks in a four-team trade. Marion’s carousel of team changes went as follows:

– In 2007, the Suns refuse demands for a max contract extension at around $20M per season.

– Suns trade Marion in mid season 2008 to Miami for Shaq.

– Marion opts in for the final year of his contract at $17.8M.

– Miami offers a three-year extension at $10M per season. Marion refuses.

– Miami trades Marion in mid season 2009 to Toronto.

– Toronto reportedly offers a four-year extension at over $8M per season. Marion refuses.

– Toronto trades Marion in off season 2009 to Dallas.

– Marion reportedly agrees to a five-year contract at slightly less than $8M per season.

Other than getting less than half of what he made last season, this move should be positive for Marion. He returns to a winning team with a chance to go deep in the playoffs. However, just how the Mavericks will integrate Marion and the somewhat similar player in Josh Howard remains to be seen.

But the storyline that has been dismissed by many pundits is the go-for-broke moves that former Suns GM Bryan Colangelo has made to turn around his team’s fortunes immediately. If you recall, the Toronto Raptors were supposed to progress into one of the elite teams in the East. Needless to say, 2008-09 was a disaster with the team registering only 33 wins.

Like he did with the Suns in 2004, Colangelo has responded by taking an aggressive approach to changing the Raptors, not willing to wait around for a multi-year rebuilding project. He has shed salaries and made key acquisitions. His highest profile signing is Hedo Turkoglu, a player with great all-around skills who had a monster 2009 NBA playoff run. Although most pundits claim that at age 30, Turkoglu is somehow on the verge of decline, I believe his game is more like Jason Kidd’s, where his passing ability and basketball IQ will allow him to still be effective into his late 30s.

Significantly, by structuring the Turkoglu acquisition as a sign-and-trade for Marion and other players, Toronto has preserved its two salary cap exceptions: the $5.9M mid-level and $1.99M biennial. This means that the Raptors can still be active in the free agent market.

Two other important moves are the re-signing former No. 1 pick Andrea Bargnani and the drafting of athletic swingman DeMar DeRozan. Along with superstar forward Chris Bosh, point guard Jose Calderon, and European-style head coach Jay Triano, the Raptors appear to be ready to put on a run-and-gun style attack that is reminiscent of the Suns when they had Mike D’Antoni at the helm.

Of course the Raptors will not put any fear into opponents defensively. But that is not what run-and-gun is all about. Suns fans enjoyed four great seasons of this type of attack, and are hoping for more with the Suns retaining head coach Alvin Gentry. If the Raptors can make the playoffs and push a 50-win season in 2009-10, it will be a huge coup for Colangelo and cement his place as one of the best GMs of his time. However, if the Raptors continue their losing ways, it will bring back memories of some of Colangelo’s worst deals such as the trades to get rid of  Dan Majerle, Charles Barkley and Jason Kidd. Time will tell.

The bottom line is Colangelo has committed to his superstar (Bosh) and has made bold moves to build the team around the star. Perhaps the Suns would do well to follow the same strategy.

Columbia-HTC was pretty upset at the rest of the peloton for not working with them to reel in the breakaway group of four riders. With the crosswinds and several S-turns on the road, it was the perfect combination of factors that a split occurred at the same time Columbia stepped on the gas in yet another attempt to chase. They had all nine riders initially in this chase group and had no intention of letting up. They were going to make the other teams pay for not participating. (See stage summary here.)

One of Lance Armstrong’s greatest assets is his attention to detail and that includes race tactics. He is always ready to deal with either disaster or opportunity. He was in a perfect position to follow the break, and that is exactly what he did. Armstrong initially did not participate in the chase/break. However, as the peloton continued to not organize itself, he ordered his two teammates to help drive what became a decisive break. It was a great execution of race tactics on the fly.

One of Alberto Contador’s weaknesses is his occasional inattention during innocuous stages. In both his ’07 Tour and ’08 Giro victories he lost time in an “easy stage” by not covering gaps in the main group. Today’s stage was another case of him not paying attention. However, this time he was in good company because all the other contenders except Armstrong were also caught out.

If the race were to be won on physical ability alone, it is Contador’s advantage all the way. However, Armstrong did not win 7 Tours by accident. Like Tiger Woods and Roger Federer in their sports, Armstrong has a psychological advantage over his opponents. Luck seems to always go his way because he is prepared to take advantage when opportunities present themselves. The only way Armstrong can win this year is by playing the role of the unflappable, cagey veteran. Contador is the superior rider in 2009, and if he keeps his head together at some point he will bury Armstrong and the rest of the field.

Contador is a runaway favorite to win. He has not lost a grand tour in two years and his current winning streak is three. The worst thing for him to do is be drawn into a mental game with Armstrong. There is no intra-team leadership battle as long as Contador rides his own race and concentrates on what he needs to do in order to win.

I promise to stop blasting out posts after this one. After all, I need to get some sleep sometime.

I’m surfing the ‘Net and keep reading articles from people who claim to know basketball that declare the Suns need to blow up this team because the current roster has no chance to win the championship. With that kind of logic, then there really should be only four teams in the NBA: the Lakers, Magic, Cavaliers, and Celtics. The reality is, no other teams had a chance to win the title this season.

So why don’t we make it easier for everyone and just blow up the remaining 26 NBA franchises. Let’s see… Stoudemire to the Lakers, Bosh to the Cavs, Wade to the Magic, Yao to the Celtics…

I understand this “no hope for a championship” mentality. If you can’t win it all, you need to try something different. But there is a difference between trying and giving up. “Blowing up” implies an irrational, immediate act without any forethought or reasoning. In the NBA, this means doing things like salary dumps and making trades for trading sake.

The essence of sports is competition. Yes, the championship is the ultimate prize. Fundamentally, however, the goal is to compete to the best of your abilities. This is what makes sports meaningful.

For the Suns, I hope the ownership and management understand that as competitors, they need to uphold their honor and put the best possible team on the floor that they can. They also have every right to try and avoid losing millions of dollars in the process.

But to use the “no hope for a championship” excuse is not acceptable. What teams can legitimately say that they can win it all? Not many, that’s for sure. And the ones that have actually been blown up are some of the worst of all: the Kings, Grizzlies, Timberwolves… This is not the kind of company Robert Sarver and Steve Kerr should want to join.

It’s time for Sarver and Kerr to act like true professionals and do the honest hard work, which is using the players they currently have and figuring out how to win as many games as possible. The idea that some great combination of players is to be had by continuing to wheel-and-deal is a gambler’s ruin that only works in fantasy sports but not in real life.

To get an idea of what the Suns would be getting if they traded Amare Stoudemire to the Golden State Warriors for Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright, and Marco Belinelli and not Stephen Curry, below is a comparison of per game career stats.

Scoring:
Stoudemire – 21.1
Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli combined – 20.8

Free Throw Attempts
Stoudemire – 7.8
Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli combined – 4.5

Rebounds:
Stoudemire – 8.9
Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli combined – 12.6

Assists:
Stoudemire – 1.4
Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli combined – 2.8

Steals:
Stoudemire – 0.9
Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli combined – 1.7

Blocks:
Stoudemire – 1.5
Biedrins, Wright, Belinelli combined – 2.1

If the Suns could figure out how to put seven players on the court at the same time and play Biedrins, Wright, and Belinelli along with the four other Suns starters, the trade looks OK. All Steve Kerr needs to do is lobby David Stern for a 7-on-5 rule for the Suns, and it’ll be all set.

The Suns pick of Earl Clark in the first round is a great move. Surprisingly, the Suns look like they will actually keep Clark rather than trade him. Also a surprise is that the front office is not going on about how he is “NBA-ready” as they have with past drafts. The plan appears to be to bring him along slowly from the beginning, which is good. Of course nothing is certain. Yet, Clark has height, physical ability, and skills. If he develops his game, he could provide a major contribution to the team.

What happens next could revolutionize the Suns or doom the team to years of futility.

The hot rumor has the Suns trading Amare Stoudemire to the Golden State Warriors for 7-0 center Andres Biedrens, and any number of other players from rookie superstar-in-waiting, Stephen Curry to former lottery pick, Brandan Wright, to former apple-of-the-Suns-eye, Italian sharpshooter Marco Belinelli.

While Curry is a very intriguing possibility, the rest of the potential players from Golden State are role players. I’ve said it more than once and I’ll say it again: successful teams do not trade a first team All-NBA player for role players and expect to successfully rebuild from the trade. The only tangible results from such a trade are salary reduction followed by years of futility.

The key to the trade is Curry, a prolific scorer with an incredible feel for the game. However, the irony of this potential trade is palpable. Trade supporters rant about the defensive shortcomings of Stoudemire. Yet, it is well-known that Curry is not a defensive player either. Trade supporters choose to ignore this fact and would rather focus on Curry’s scoring ability.

Would the Suns become a better team in the future if they did obtain Curry and several Warrior role players? Probably not. I’m not doubting Curry’s potential. But the Suns will not improve by trading a great interior scorer for a great perimeter scorer. The plain fact is that the best teams can score in the paint. While these points certainly can came from penetration, the more effective weapon is having a big man scoring threat. Especially if you already have one on your team!

The worst case is the rumor that Curry is not even part of the deal. If so, the Suns would be trading their best scorer for a bunch of role players, none of whom are proven scorers in the NBA. (Of course Curry has yet to prove himself in the NBA either, but it’s a foregone conclusion the kid can score.) This deal would be an absolute disaster. Yet, the Suns front office is fully capable of making such a move of desperation.

The Suns were the highest scoring team in the league last year. And team management has committed to the running game. So if the Suns trade Stoudemire, they must get at least one proven scorer in return.

Despite the excitement, I don’t think the trade will happen. Stoudemire has just begun exercising and is a long way from returning to basketball activities. The Warriors must be concerned about Stoudemire’s retina and his knees. They also would want reassurances that he will sign a contract extension (at the max). I can’t see all this happening before the season starts.

Another rumor that seems to have much less traction in the public eye has the Suns trading newly acquired and assumed-to-be-retiring Ben Wallace to the New Orleans Hornets for Tyson Chandler. Injured or not, the chance to get Chandler would be a fantastic opportunity for the Suns. A front line of Chandler, Stoudemire, and Grant Hill backed up by Robin Lopez. Lou Amundson, and Jared Dudley is a lineup that offers real potential for improvement and competitiveness. This is the type of move that might also instantly turn around the team’s fortunes and transform the Suns into one of the better teams in the league.

The key is the Suns must keep Stoudemire. Instead of focusing on the negatives, the Suns need to realize that they in fact have a rare talent who can be a foundation player on a winning team. Just like how the Suns have taken a pragmatic approach to newly acquired Earl Clark, the Suns must also take a pragmatic approach with Amare Stoudemire and recognize that he can be a very important part of team’s future.

About an hour after I published my post about tomorrow’s draft came the news that the Suns finally unloaded $20M in salary plus another $1M in a trade kicker to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, the 46th pick (16th in the second round) in the upcoming draft, and $500K in cash. Oh yeah, the Suns included a player with the salary, Shaquille O’Neal.

We all know the Suns are saving serious money with this trade. The question, if there even is one, is whether or not Wallace and Pavlovic have a future with the Suns.

In the immediate aftermath of the Cavs crushing playoff loss to the Orlando Magic, Wallace indicated that he was seriously considering retirement as opposed to putting his body through the grind of another NBA season. This statement came when he was facing the prospect of playing for a contender. Now, Wallace is part of a team that might not even make the playoffs. Why would he even consider not retiring?

It is pretty difficult to walk away from $14M no matter how wealthy the person. It also may not be so easy for Wallace accept pennies on the dollar in a buyout. The Suns training staff have rebuilt injured players that other teams had given up on such as Antonio McDyess, Shaq, and Grant Hill. The Suns desperately need size and Wallace may have enough left in the tank for one more season. So maybe Wallace stays.

In different circumstances, Pavlovic may have had a chance to break in to the Suns rotation. He shot 41 percent from three-point range last year. And at 6-7/235, he has size for a shooting guard. But with a salary of almost $5M of which only $1.5M is guaranteed, the Suns will certainly cut Pavlovic in favor of signing one of their second round picks at a much lower salary.

And how about Amare Stoudemire?

The rumor mill suggests the Suns are not done dealing and it is possible another big trade could be made during the draft in conjunction with the Suns obtaining another first round pick. Are talks involving Stoudemire are heating up?

I am still convinced that Stoudemire is not good trade material yet. Yes, he has finally been cleared to begin exercising, but that is a long way away from proving he will be 100 percent at the beginning of the season. And as mentioned previously, what GM will trade quality players for this kind of risk?

From the Suns perspective, if they trade Amare, depending on what they receive in return they will have only one player under contract at 6-10 or taller in the form of 7-0 Robin Lopez. In comparison, the Magic start Dwight Howard (6-11), Rashard Lewis (6-10) and Hedo Turkoglu (6-10). The Lakers start Andrew Bynum (7-0), Pau Gasol (7-0) and Trevor Ariza (at a relatively puny 6-8). But the Lakers also play Lamar Odom (6-10) a lot of minutes.

C’mon, the Suns have to have a little pride, right? Is this the Suns or the Grizzlies? If they dump Amare without getting a big man in return, how can the team possibly compete at any level in this league with only one big man? I am a fan of Lou Amundson, but he is only 6-9 and clearly cannot come close to filling the void if the Suns lost both Shaq and Amare.

So the prediction is Wallace stays, Stoudemire stays, and Pavlovic goes.

Many pundits are negative on tomorrow’s 2009 NBA draft saying it is one of the worst in recent memory. However, I think it is one of the most intriguing. There is little discrepancy between, say, the 6th pick and the 20th. Therefore, mock drafts have been all over the place as far as which player is going to which team. This unpredictability is fun.

One rumor has the Suns drafting a point guard with the 14th pick. Call me crazy, but if the ultimate objective is to win a championship, then I offer one rule for any self-respecting NBA GM:

Do not draft a point guard in the lottery!

You want proof? Let’s look at the teams that have recently won the title and who they actually had at PG.

1999, San Antonio Spurs: Avery Johnson, free agent

2000, 2001, 2002, 2009, Los Angeles Lakers: Derek Fisher, 24th pick

2003, 2005, 2007, Spurs: Tony Parker, 28th pick

2004, Detroit Pistons: Chauncey Billups, free agent

2006, Miami Heat: Jason Williams, free agent

2008, Boston Celtics: Rajon Rondo, 21st pick (courtesy of your Phoenix Suns)

I know that Billups and Williams were, in fact, lottery picks. However, neither won the championship with the team that drafted them. Billups was picked 3rd by the Celtics but was traded or signed as a free agent by four teams until he signed as a free agent by Detroit. Williams was drafted 7th by the Sacramento Kings. He was traded a few seasons later to the Memphis Grizzlies and then a few seasons later to the Heat. Williams had declined to the point where he was a role player on the Heat’s championship squad, not a focal point.

The simple fact is teams that draft a PG in the lottery do not go on to win the championship with said PG.

Furthermore, merely finding a lottery PG with staying power is a difficult proposition. For every Derrick Rose there are a slew of flameouts such as Randy Foye (just traded), Acie Law (just traded), Jerryd Bayless (traded right after he was drafted), and Mike Conley (probably will be traded). There is also Russell Westbrook, who had a great rookie year as a PG, but is now being considered in a move to shooting guard by the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Intelligent, competitive guards with skill and court vision can develop into great point guards. Late draft picks and free agents fit the bill. Tony Parker is one example. Avery Johnson is another. For the Suns, I wouldn’t put Goran Dragic in that category at the moment. But the fact is he has skill and court vision for an uptempo game. He is also smart and competitive. When looking at team needs and intelligently rebuilding the franchise, Dragic will be “good enough” at point guard for the Suns future.

Another thing to remember is teams that win in the playoffs usually have size. Teams are much better off drafting a non-PG in the lottery, someone with height and all-around skills.

We all know that the Suns are severely lacking depth in taller players. They must consider tall skilled players such as the ones they brought in for a follow up workout last weekend: Earl Clark, James Johnson, and Austin Daye. Not only do all three players have a nice upside, but as decent ball handlers, any one of these three could develop into a mismatch dream for the Suns. Also any one of these three will do more towards pushing the Suns towards greater achievements than a point guard would.