Quest Club of Arizona

Seems that talk show chatter has all but confirmed that Amare Stoudemire will be traded this offseason, and the possible rewards of such a deal range from Rajon Rondo to Caron Butler. (See Gambo’s blog post on KTAR.com.)

Unfortunately for trade supporters, the reality is that Stoudemire can’t be traded right now nor any time in the near future. HOOPSWORLD published an update and I’ll quote here since it is buried in a multi-topic article:

“HOOPSWORLD recently caught up with Suns’ GM Steve Kerr who explained that Amar’e still has not be cleared for any physical activity. In fact, while Stoudemire’s detached retina recovery is on schedule, the byproduct of this surgery is a thick dense fluid that builds up inside the eye and that additional surgery or extended rest is the only way to clear it up. Kerr described Amar’e as having to lie flat on his side for long periods of time and allow the fluid to drain out of the eye naturally. While this is not a setback, it is a long, painstaking process. Stoudemire is expected to make a full recovery, but the odds any team considers trading for a player who has been inactive for the better part of 5 months is slim and until Amar’e returns to the court and proves there are no side effects or vision issues his value is extremely limited according to league sources.”

If you were running the Celtics, Wizards, or any other NBA team, what are the chances that you would trade some of your best players for one who literally can’t get out of bed right now due to doctor’s orders? I doubt even “Fire Sale” GM Chris Wallace of the Memphis Grizzlies would entertain the idea.

The only way a trade happens is if the Suns give away Stoudemire in their own fire sale. I’m not past the Suns making such a move of desperation since their recent track record of trades is spotty at best. But the chances of this happening are very slim.

Talk show hosts and bloggers (like myself) are all entitled to opinions. So if KTAR’s Gambo wants to continue to beat the drum that Stoudemire will definitely be gone this summer, that is his right.

Just keep in mind that Gambo is flat out wrong.

So who was it that hit Suns GM Steve Kerr and Suns majority owner Robert Sarver on their heads and knocked some sense into them?

Kerr suddenly appears to have realized the wonders of “cap space.” The high-dollar players whom Kerr is trying to dump for expiring contracts, draft picks, and underachieving role players might all be off the books by the end of next season, giving the Suns the chance to be a big factor in the highly rated 2010 free agent market. Kerr now admits this is a good thing. (See Paola Boivin’s post on azcentral.)

In strange symmetry, Sarver has proclaimed that he has no intention of owning a 29-game winner. (See Dan Bickley’s post on azcentral.) We also know that the Suns don’t have a first round draft pick in 2010. So not only would it be unacceptable to Sarver for the Suns to turn into a league doormat, but there is also no reward for failure. They traded their 2010 first round pick without lottery protection to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Kurt Thomas trade.

So will the Suns now not make any major trades in 2009? Not so fast. The Dallas Mavericks were feeling good about themselves after dominating the San Antonio Spurs in the first round playoff series. Yet, after being on the losing side of a lopsided playoff matchup against the Denver Nuggets in the second round, the Mavs appear to be readying themselves for an active offseason.

Then in the biggest upset of the playoffs, the Cleveland Cavaliers melted down in the conference finals and now cannot sit still in the offseason. We all know Shaquille O’Neal would be a good fit with the Cavs and he would certainly make the Mavs a better team.

Perhaps common sense might prevail in the Suns front office, but that still doesn’t mean they will not make a big trade. However, there will be more thought put into the process this time around. And it also means that I have to adjust my post about who will definitely be gone. Shaq now moves into the “Maybe” category, joining Matt Barnes, Grant Hill, and Amare Stoudemire.

Moving on the the remaining players on the roster, the rest of this post focuses on players who will definitely be back for next season.

Louis Amundson
(’08-’09 salary: $797,581, ’09-’10 salary/status: $855,189)

Jared Dudley
(’08-’09 salary: $1,222,320, ’09-’10 salary/status: $1,307,640)
It’s logical to group Amundson and Dudley into the same category because both players have earned a slot in the regular rotation through hard work and hustle. Amundson was a free agent steal and Dudley is the saving grace of the Raja Bell/Boris Diaw midseason trade. Hopefully, they will both continue to grow as players next season and both are definite keepers.

Alando Tucker
(’08-’09 salary: $1,001,880, ’09-’10 salary/status: $1,071,720)

Robin Lopez
(’08-’09 salary: $1,623,720, ’09-’10 salary/status: $1,745,520)

Goran Dragic
(’08-’09 salary: $1,700,000, ’09-’10 salary/status: $1,836,000)
The three Suns players still on their reasonably affordable guaranteed rookie scale contracts are also keepers. Tucker, who was a prolific scorer during his rookie stint in the D-League, seems remarkably passive during his gametime in the NBA. But he has a cheap contract and is certain to return.

Lopez also showed flashes of potential, but he still looked awkward and out of place even at the end of the season. Perhaps with his first season under his belt and a chance to work on his game all summer, Lopez can emerge as a regular contributor. If he can do so, it will be a big plus for the Suns, who are severely lacking size.

Of the three, Dragic emerged late in the season as the one with the most potential. Clearly suited to the uptempo style of coach Alvin Gentry, Dragic became a more reliable ball handler and a more accurate shooter once Gentry loosened the reins and let the rookie guard freelance without consequences for little mistakes. The second round pick of ’08 received lottery money in order to ensure his escape from his oversees contract. His performance in the last 31 games of the season provided hope that Dragic will live up to that potential in the coming seasons.

Leandro Barbosa
(’08-’09 salary: $6,100,000, ’09-’10 salary/status: $6,600,000)
Last pre-season’s trade talk involving Barbosa was remarkable in its short-sightedness. At a tick over $6M per year, Barbosa is one of the best bargains in the NBA. Many times outperforming the much higher paid Jason Richardson, Barbosa ironically went from trade bait to untouchable in Steve Kerr’s mind as the 2009 trade deadline approached. And there is no reason to think that Barbosa will be traded any time soon. He plays hard and doesn’t complain about coming off the bench. Barbosa has three more years left on his current contract and should be entering the prime years of his career.

Jason Richardson
(’08-’09 salary: $12,222,222, ’09-’10 salary/status: $13,333,333)
It’s difficult to imagine that a $13M player is a project but this is exactly what the Suns have in Richardson. He is the symbol of Steve Kerr’s reign as GM. At the time of the trade last December, Kerr made a point to talk about Richardson’s defense since Kerr’s mantra has always been about defense. Needless to say, the Suns were an even worse defensive team this year than during the Mike D’Antoni era, and Richardson is a poor defender at best. Many times he simply looked lost after blowing assignment after assignment. His shortcomings are even more glaring when compared to the player Richardson replaced, lockdown defender Raja Bell.

Kerr can talk all he wants to about defending the pick-and-roll, but good team defense starts with the perimeter. Clearly, Richardson knows how to score, but the only way the Suns will become a more competitive team is if Richardson learns how to play better defense.

Steve Nash
(’08-’09 salary: $12,250,000, ’09-’10 salary/status: $13,125,000 team option)
With only partial money guaranteed to Nash for next season it is still possible that he will not be back with the team. Of course if he were to leave, Robert Sarver would see season ticket renewals plummet even further. As the face of the franchise and perhaps the most popular player with the paying public, it is vital for the Suns to retain Nash.

However, Nash has played it cool so far this offseason in deciding to wait and see how things unfold before starting any contract extension talks. This is a smart move. If the Suns jettison Shaq and Stoudemire and replace them with the likes of Ben Wallace and Tyrus Thomas, then Nash would rather play somewhere else. And who could blame him?

Ultimately, it’s difficult to believe that Jason Richardson will be earning more money next year than Nash. The indications are that Nash wants big money for a contract extension. And if the Suns are willing to fork over $13M – $14M for a player of Richardson’s caliber, then they must see the logic in rewarding the two-time league MVP and leader of the run-and-gun offense with a nice paycheck to finish out his career in Phoenix.

It is interesting that since Suns GM Steve Kerr publicly criticized the team’s big men for their lack of pick-and-roll defense, many fans have been jumping on the bandwagon stating that the Suns need to trade Shaquille O’Neal for a center “who plays defense.” This is absurd.

Shaq has limited lateral mobility because of his size. As a result, he cannot defend the pick-and-roll like a skinnier player such as Kevin Garnett. However, Shaq is a good defender in the post. To suggest that Shaq doesn’t play defense is missing the point. There are very few centers who can defend both the post and the pick-and-roll well. Dwight Howard can. Yao Ming cannot. But I don’t see calls coming out of Houston demanding that Yao be traded for the likes of Ben Wallace or Erick Dampier.

Kerr has decided that he wants to build the Suns defense around defending the pick-and-roll. Never mind the fact that prior to Shaq coming to town, the Suns were so weak at defending the post, that pundits said the Suns will never win a championship unless they find a good post defender.

You know, “Back to the Future” worked for Michael J. Fox, so maybe it will also work for Steve Kerr. And as I mentioned in my last post, I believe Shaq will be traded in the offseason because of it. It would be a big mistake, but nevertheless I see it happening.

So if Shaq will be gone, who else might be? The rest of this post focuses on players who may or may not be back with the Suns next season.

Matt Barnes
(’08-’09 salary: $1,200,000, ’09-’10 salary/status: Free agent)
The one certainty for the Suns this offseason is that majority owner Robert Sarver will not increase payroll. If anything, payroll will be reduced. This puts Barnes in limbo.

Let’s not forget that the emergence of Jared Dudley at small forward and Louis Amundson at power forward have given the Suns depth at the two positions Barnes plays. This leaves Barnes with two options: accept a minimum contract again with the Suns or look for a raise with a different team.

Time will tell which option pans out.

Grant Hill
(’08-’09 salary: $1,976,400, ’09-’10 salary/status: Free agent)
After playing all 82 games in a season for the first time in his career this season, Grant Hill wants to come back for ’09-’10. He would probably be willing to sign for the minimum as he did two seasons ago.

However, there is a caveat. If the Suns dump their best players and replace them with scrubs, rookies, and washed up veterans, then Hill will likely not want to come back. He won’t want to play for a team locked in to reaching the lottery for the second year in a row. (By the way, as mentioned previously, the Suns traded an unprotected 2010 first round pick to the Thunder.)

So Hill’s future with the Suns is really more about the Suns convincing Hill that it will be worthwhile for him to return rather than Hill proving he is still a viable player.

Amare Stoudemire
(’08-’09 salary: $15,070,550, ’09-’10 salary/status: 16,378,325)
Similar to Shaq, Kerr does not see Stoudemire as a prototypical Suns big man. Just who would actually be the future Suns power forward remains to be seen. Somehow, I think it will be difficult to find a player with career averages of 21.1 ppg, 8.9rpg, and 1.5 blocks, while shooting 54 percent from the field.

Who knows, maybe the Suns will win the lottery so they can draft Blake Griffin. Yet, the knock on Griffin is that he doesn’t have an “NBA-ready” defense. Then again, didn’t Kerr claim that Jason Richardson is a good defender? Perception is reality.

I continue to beat the drum of the “Keep Amare” movement. And this also includes keeping Shaq, Steve Nash and coach Alvin Gentry. Nevertheless, I have no doubt that if the right financial deal comes their way, the Suns will not hesitate to trade Stoudemire, just as they will with Shaq.

The lucky break for the Suns (at least in my opinion) is that equitable deals will likely not be offered for Stoudemire. There are two red flags: his season-ending eye injury and his opt-out clause for the ’10-’11 season. Either factor is a risk that the trading team will not have Stoudemire for the long term. Without any good offers, the Suns will be forced to keep STAT for at least one more year. Fate might actually be smiling on the Suns for once.

With these three players’ future with the Suns in limbo, along with two players who won’t be back, the Suns are left with eight keepers. The final article in this three-part series will focus those eight who appear to be set to return with the Suns for next season.

Now that the season is over, we should waste no time in thinking about the future of the Phoenix Suns. After all, the team finished the season on a high note and even with all the uncertainty facing the team in the offseason, there are many positive developments that fans can take away from 2008-09.

First and foremost is that the Suns have found a coach. Alvin Gentry still has the term, “interim” next his title, but the Suns would be foolish not to renew Gentry for the coming season and beyond. He has stabilized the team and the players are responding to his coaching. Furthermore, even with a key injury to Amare Stoudemire, Gentry’s win percentage as Suns head coach (18-13, .581) is better than his predecessor’s (28-23, .549).

The Suns are also fun to watch again. Sure, the run-and-gun offense has its critics, but no one can deny that the last 31 games of the season have been enjoyable even with all the ups and downs.

Finally, for the first time in years, the Suns appear to have an effective bench comprised of young players who have gone through noticeable development. Give credit to Gentry for putting his interim job on the line. He trusted unproven talent that many had given up on. The emergence of Jared Dudley, Goran Dragic, and Robin Lopez is proof of the masterful job Gentry has done in not only giving the new guys meaningful court time but also instilling confidence in his players.

Over a series of three posts, we are going to examine the Suns current roster and predict, or perhaps wish, which players will not be returning, are in limbo, and will definitely return. Today’s article focuses on who will be dropped by the Suns.

“Dropped” is perhaps an inaccurate term. As you will see, it is not as simple as dropping a player when guaranteed contracts are involved.

Stromile Swift
(’08-’09 salary: $380,612, ’09-’10 salary/status: Free agent)
Appearing in 13 games for the Suns, Swift has not shown much to warrant his return for next season. His best game was a 10 point, 12 rebound, 1 blocked shot game in a win over the depleted Washington Wizards. He also had 12 points and 6 rebounds in a blowout loss to Portland. The rest of his appearances offered little excitement. What stands out most to me is that even as a 9-year NBA veteran, Swift is not a fluid offensive player. For a team that routinely puts up 120 points this is a problem especially since Swift is not an in-the-trenches, hustle-play type of player. His best asset is his size. For a team severely lacking in size, the only way Swift can possibly return to the Suns is if Stoudemire cannot come back from his eye injury, or the Suns cannot draft or sign a free agent big man.

Shaquille O’Neal
(’08-’09 salary: $20,000,000, ’09-’10 salary/status: $20,000,000)
As much as I have advocated keeping Shaq, I will concede that he will be gone before the beginning of next season. Even coming off a great revival season, there are two things about Shaq that the Suns front office cannot stand: his huge contract and his lack of mobility on defense. And if there are two common themes that have characterized the Robert Sarver/Steve Kerr era, it is the tunnel-vision quest to cut payroll and the holy grail search for a better defense.

The Suns will shop very hard to trade Shaq. However, it’s his $20M price tag that will make it difficult for the Suns front office to find an offer they can live with. But as the saying goes, desperate people do desperate things. And I don’t see the Suns hesitating very long in lowering their expectations to get a deal done.

So there you have it. Only 2 players out of the current 13 will definitely not be back next season. This is somewhat surprising given the amount of personnel changes the Suns have made recently. For a team that for so long talked about being committed to “keeping its core intact” the Suns have had considerable turnover.

When you think of names like Joe Johnson, Shawn Marion, Raja Bell, and Boris Diaw you probably believe they are core players, and yet they are all gone. And when you add to this list the departed role players who made an impact such as Quentin Richardson, Eddie House, James Jones, Kurt Thomas, and Tim Thomas, you come to realize that the Suns have constantly been in transition even when they were averaging 58 wins from 2004 to 2008.

I am not advocating that the Suns should have kept anyone specific from the above list of players. But what is obvious is that there is a pattern of the Suns making annual major roster changes. This pattern must be broken for the Suns to establish stability and focus on getting better as a team.

The next article in this three-part series will focus on players who equally may or may not be back with the Suns next season.

Regardless of whether or not the Dallas Mavericks really want to trade for Shaq, the latest rumors of where The Diesel will end up for the last year of his $20M per year contract makes sense.

Shaq admires the way Mark Cuban runs the Mavs. And in the West, any team that is not named “Lakers” is a pretender, not a contender. If Jason Kidd returns to the Mavs as a free agent with a much reduced salary, and if Josh Howard can stop being a flake, Dallas could lay claim to being the second best in the West for 2009-10.

Now to what really matters to readers of this blog. How do the Suns benefit? As you all know, I am against the Suns getting rid of any of their Big 3 (Shaq, Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire). Nevertheless, the reality is that Suns majority owner Robert Saver is simply going to inflict his will into making a trade happen for either Shaq or Stoudemire or both.

Of the two, Shaq has the most trade value. Believe it or not, he’s actually less of a health risk than Stoudemire. And productive centers are much harder to come by. Most importantly to Sarver, trading Shaq will save the Suns the most money.

The most logical Suns-Mavs deal is Shaq for “Ericka” Dampier and Jerry Stackhouse. The Suns will immediately save $2.6M in salaries for 2009-10. Then Stackhouse is only guaranteed $2M for next season, so the Suns can buy out his contract and save another $5.25M. The end result is a $7.85M cut in payroll plus any potential luxury tax savings. There may not be any other trade available to the Suns that will save as much money as this trade would.

From a basketball perspective, Dampier is not the kind of player to get the fans excited. However, given the lack of size on the Suns roster, anyone over 6-9 would be a welcome addition to at least offer a few minutes of defense per game. And the driving force behind all this trade talk is that Sarver will not let a basketball decision get in the way of his ultimate goal of saving money by any means necessary.

I’m out of my basketball comfort zone with this post, but anyone think that the Arizona Cardinals should try to go after Jay Cutler? It looks like the Broncos fumbled and bumbled their way into ruining their relationship with their Pro Bowl QB. The way some QBs can play well into their 30’s, Cutler could be the Cards’ QB for the next 10 years after Warner retires. The huge hurdle would be convincing Cutler to compete with Warner for the starting job.

In reverse to the Suns situation, maybe the Cardinals can trade the proverbial young players, draft picks, junk players and cash for a superstar?

Normally, I agree with TNT analyst Charles Barkley or at least understand where he’s coming from. However, I think he has got it all wrong with his idea that the Suns should trade Amare Stoudemire for young players and draft picks.

As you know, I am firmly in the “keep Amare” camp. Perhaps I’m the only Suns fan who truly feels this way. But regardless of your feelings about Stoudemire, the reality is that a trade will more than likely not improve the team and instead might make things worse.

First, let’s examine this season. When the Suns were shopping Stoudemire, it turns out the strongest possibility was the Chicago Bulls. Yes, a 1st round draft pick would have been part of the deal. However, there is a good chance that this would not have been a lottery pick. The Bulls own two 1st round picks for 2009, their own and the worse of either the Nuggets’ or Spurs’ 1st pick. In terms of young players, the Bulls were offering Joakim Noah, Tyrus Thomas and Thabo Sefolosha. No disrespect to these players, but I don’t see any of them becoming a go-to, franchise-type player.

On top of that, the Bulls are currently tied for the 8th spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. In other words, the Suns could have risked trading Stoudemire against the odds of the Bulls making the playoffs and may have ended up with three role players, the 15th pick in the 2009 draft, and some cleared cap space. That would have been a disastrous way to begin a rebuilding project. As a GM, you cannot trade your star player on a gamble. You need a sure bet.

Also it is vital to remember that Stoudemire’s eye injury was not discovered until after this season’s trade deadline passed. All trade decisions were made under the assumption that Stoudemire would have been able to finish out the season and playoffs.

Turning to the upcoming offseason, there is one major impact player in the draft. As Fred alluded to in a comment to one of my previous posts, Oklahoma sophomore Blake Griffin is the consensus predicted 1st pick for the 2009 draft. However, there is no chance that the Suns will be able to trade Stoudemire for the rights to draft Griffin, and here’s why. At 6-10 with tremendous athleticism and great scoring ability, Griffin will play in a very similar role to that of Stoudemire. No team will want to trade away the rights to Griffin for a player who is older, similar, more expensive with an opt-out clause, and possibly damaged goods. The only way the Suns get Griffin is if they win the lottery themselves and get the 1st overall pick with their own draft pick.

Another important dose of reality. If the Suns trade away Stoudemire and begin rebuilding, they currently do not have a 1st round pick in 2010. This is one of the infamous “sold draft picks” given away by Suns majority owner Robert Sarver and GM Steve Kerr. If the Suns bomb out next season with a bunch of young project players, rookies, and scrubs, the will kindly hand over to the Oklahoma City Thunder a nice gift in the form of another lottery pick for that franchise. The Suns have every incentive to make the playoffs next season because they have already traded away their 2010 1st round pick.

I’ll repeat myself from my last post and argue that the Suns need to hold their ground for next season and aim for 2010 as a rebuilding year. The 2010 free agent class completely blows away 2009. Assuming that Stoudemire and Steve Nash don’t return for the long term, the contacts of Stoudemire (player option), Nash, and Shaquille O’Neal all expire for 2010, putting the Suns in an ideal position to sign two marquee free agents. This is something certain that a GM can plan for.

Bottom line? If the Suns trade Stoudemire this offseason, it will be the worst trade in the franchise’s history since they traded Dennis Johnson to the Boston Celtics for Rick Robey.

Based on the title, you might think that this post will be about the past, as in the past trades made by Suns’ GM Steve Kerr. Actually it is not. I am following advice from Kerr himself and not looking back, but forward. This post is about what the Suns should do in the offseason.

However, I will regress just set the scene. After last year’s playoff series loss to the Spurs, I wrote an email to Kerr using the Suns’ website contact page. I begged him to keep the team together and keep Mike D’Antoni as coach. I pleaded that the future of the team was with a starting front line of Shaq, Amare Stoudemire, and Boris Diaw as Triple Towers.

Obviously, Mr. Kerr never bothered reading my email. And that brings us to this post. If any of you out there are reading this article, it would be at least one more person than who read my last message to Kerr. I’m getting at least a 100 percent improvement on this one.

Mathematically, yes, the Suns can still make the postseason. Practically speaking, last night’s loss to the Mavericks has eliminated to Suns from the playoff race. Honestly, the Suns have actually played pretty well throughout this current five game losing skid. Yet, it is painfully clear that the loss of Stoudemire has been cataclysmic as far as registering wins versus losses. The Suns need to continue to finish out the season with pride, play hard, and try to win as many games as possible. It will set the tone for the future.

First and foremost, let’s forget about the concept of “blowing up the team” and starting over. In order to dismantle a team, first there must have been a stable roster to begin with. The Suns have already been blown up. Only three players remain from that magical 2004-05 season: Stoudemire, Steve Nash, and Leandro Barbosa. Only six remain from last year: Stoudemire, Nash, Barbosa, Shaq, Grant Hill, and Alando Tucker. Even more turnover will only ensure a further downward spiral. Instead, Suns management should keep this current team together for one more shot at glory.

Despite his defensive weaknesses and despite his personality flaws, Stoudemire is one of the best scorers in the game. Most importantly, he is a finisher, a closer, someone you can give the ball to at critical moments of a game to make something happen. There are only a few players who fit that description, and none would be available to the Suns via a trade or free agency for next year. Kobe? LeBron? Pierce? Wade? Duncan? Not a chance.

How about trading Stoudemire for a lottery pick? Terrible option. No one in his right mind would bet the future on the 2009 draft lottery, one that is best described as “weak”. By keeping Stoudemire, the Suns hold on to a sliver of hope for a championship. By trading him, there will be no hope at all.

The Suns should also keep Nash and Shaq. Both have contracts that currently go no further than next season, clearing substantial salary cap space for two seasons from now. Nash is another closer and is still popular with the fans. And with the return the to uptempo offense, his stats are falling in line with the previous four seasons. From a basketball perspective, the Suns are also better off keeping Shaq. In the last 12 games, the team has proven it can run with Shaq in the lineup. Throw in a healthy Stoudemire and instead of being 6-7 under Alvin Gentry, the Suns could be 10-3 or even 11-2.

Ultimately, my advice to Steve Kerr is to do the most difficult thing of all: make no major changes. The team’s three best players should remain as well as most of the other players under contract: Barbosa, Lou Amundson, Jared Dudley, Robin Lopez, Tucker, and Goran Dragic. Given his productivity, Barbosa is a bargain at $6.6M per season. As a 12th man free agent signee last offseason, Amundson is an absolute steal. Dudley is a contributor. Lopez is a mobile big guy with potential. Tucker has a great locker room/practice court presence and an affordable contract. Dragic may or may not succeed but he would be too expensive to get rid of at this point.

The one player who the Suns should consider trading is Jason Richardson. The general rule is that any guard who gets paid more than $10M per season must have the ability to dominate the ball when needed and win games for his team. At an average of $13.3M per season for three seasons, Richardson has proven to be greatly overpaid. He is a tremendous athlete who can score in big bunches. Yet, despite all his abilities he cannot take over a game and lead his team to victory. The Suns’ acquisition of Richardson seemed to make sense at the time. And like many, I was in favor of it when it happened. But after 40 games, I admit that my analysis was off the mark. It will be difficult to move Richardson who still has a big multi-year contract. The Suns would not be able to get comparable talent in return. However in terms of needs, the Suns could really use a dependable power forward or center. Using Richardson as trade bait to fill a need could have tremendous benefits for the Suns.

As mentioned in my previous post, based on current contracts, 2010-11 is guaranteed to bring dramatic changes to the Suns’ roster. Like virtually every other team in the NBA, 2010-11 is the season Suns management needs to target for any overhauling plans. The free agent class is a who’s who of superstars. Therefore, the Suns need to keep the current team mostly intact for one more season not only because there is a slim chance that they can go deep in the playoffs next year, but also because any dramatic moves now might eliminate much bigger possibilities in two seasons. A knee jerk reaction by Kerr this offseason could destroy any hopes for this franchise for many years to come.

A couple weeks ago, Yahoo columnist Johnny Ludden wrote an article bringing into question how valuable Amare Stoudemire is to the Suns. After watching the Suns lose two winnable games against Orlando and Miami, I think Mr Ludden has his answer: a whole heckuva lot.

Against the Magic’s two 6-10 starting forwards, the Suns had no answer with its combination of the 6-8 Grant Hill, 6-7 Matt Barnes, and 6-6 Jason Richardson. Against the Heat, it is true that the Suns shot the lights out. However, the Heat’s zone defense shut down the Suns at the right times. Stoudemire’s ability to get to the hoop and draw fouls usually with “and 1” opportunities would have made an important difference in both outcomes.

The most vulnerable playoff position team in the West is the Dallas Mavericks. Yet, the Suns now have three more losses than the Mavs with just 21 games left to play. If things were different and the Suns managed to win against the Magic and the Heat, the deficit would have been only one loss. And because the Suns still have two games against the Mavs before the season is over, I would have liked the Suns’ chances. However the way things are now, the Suns have no control over their own destiny because even a sweep in the their two games against Dallas won’t be enough to pull them ahead in the playoff race.

It is clear that the Suns are now playing with pride and a sense of purpose. Alvin Gentry is doing a great job of coaching. Defensive lapses aside, the Suns are also a lot of fun to watch again. But the midseason trade of Boris Diaw (along with Raja Bell) combined with the loss of Stoudemire to eye surgery have left the team severely depleted when it comes to playing physical and being able to match up with playoff-caliber teams.

However, I still believe that this team still has a lot to play for. The most important thing for the Suns to do is finish the season strongly, playoffs or not. Simply measuring how competitively the Suns play each game and begin to win back the fans will determine what happens in the offseason. Assuming the core roster remains for next year along with Coach Gentry, it will definitely be the last opportunity for this mix of players to take a shot at winning it all. As far fetched as it may seem for the Suns to win the NBA title in 2009-10, we all can be assured that the 2010-11 team will look much different.

Shaq’s contract expires after next season. Provided the Suns do pick up Steve Nash’s team option for next year but then not sign Nash to an extension for the future, his contract will also be finished. Hill talked about perhaps playing one more season, but he will certainly be done at the end of 2010. Other players who may leave are Stoudemire (player option), as well as Robin Lopez, Jared Dudley, and Alando Tucker (all team options). Barnes is only on a one-year deal and no mention has yet been made of him even being back for next season. All told, there are only three players who are under firm contracts for two seasons from now: Richardson, Leandro Barbosa, and Goran Dragic. All guards, no big men.

It will be nearly impossible for the Suns to improve their roster this offseason unless they can pull off a major trade. But we have already been down this road with Stoudemire and Shaq. Even though the rumors have been tantalizing, the reality is that the actual offers have been underwhelming. And who knows if Stoudemire has been further devalued by his health problems.

The alternative strategy of trading to clear salary cap space is not particularly viable for next season either. Looking at the upcoming crop of free agents, there isn’t any one player who stands out as a good fit that would address the Suns’ needs in size, interior athleticism, and defensive prowess. Carlos Boozer is not appropriate for the uptempo game and would be too expensive. Rasheed Wallace is now strictly a perimeter player. Shawn Marion would probably not entertain the thought of coming back. Ron Artest is too volatile. The realities of the market may force the Suns to stand pat when it comes to major personnel decisions for this offseason.

With all this in mind, there is a fragment, a hint, of intrigue surrounding the Suns’ latest free agent signee, Stromile Swift. True, he has done nothing to distinguish himself in his previous eight seasons in the NBA other than being drafted second overall. And there is no factual basis in expecting Swift to make a major contribution this season. However, he is athletic, he’s tall with a long wingspan, and he has experience.

At 29, it is now-or-never time in Swift’s career for him to be remembered as anything more than just another lottery flop. Solid play by Swift in whatever opportunities he gets this season can be parlayed into a full-time role next season as a multi-purpose backup for Shaq and Stoudemire. If he can fill this much-needed role for the team, then there will be one less thing to worry about this offseason for the Suns faithful.

I have actually begun to watch the Suns and I really like what I see. They lost a couple of tough games in Florida, and I think if they make the playoffs they will be a dangerous team no one will want to play. THEY ARE FUN TO WATCH!!!! Shaq is playing at a very high level right now and he is their best player. They rest of the team is playing well and shooting the lights out most nights. The defense is get up a shot in 7 seconds even after the other team scores. Won’t play as well in the playoffs, but it sure is fun to watch.

Some of the visiting announcers like Jeff Van Gundy, and some of the Analysts like Peter Vessey have come down hard on three of the Suns: Steve Nash, Grant Hill, and Amare Stoudemire for not buying into the Terry Porter style of play and not giving it 100%. I’m not sure because I wasn’t watching the Suns at that point, but it doesn’t sound like any of them. One of the sideline reporters asked Steve Nash about it at a game that Nash wasn’t playing, and he said he hadn’t heard any such thing. Anyone have an opinion on this. Did these guys lay down on Porter and cost him his job.

ARIZONA CARDINALS: Warner is signed and I can quit whinning. Latest rumor is the Cards are shopping Leinart around. They still have a couple of big jobs to get done dealing with Boldin and Dansby. Then some of the lesser lights on defense. Sport’s Illustrated has predicted they will draft a center as they feel the Cards need more help on the offensive line. They are also looking for a running back. Think where they would be if they had drafted Adrian Peterson. He was there when they drafted their OT, who is a very good player, but Peterson looks like a Hall of Famer.